Wednesday, May 1, 2013

If you believe the odds, Manatee County likely to have quiet hurricane season

Professor William Gray and research scientist Philip Kloztbach from Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science have become the go-to guys in the last few years as hurricane predictors.

The pair have been making predictions about hurricane season for the last 30 years. Last month, they released their report for the 2013 season, which starts June 1. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will be releasing its forecast later this month.

The overview: In the Atlantic this year, we can expect 18 named storms, nine of them hurricanes. Four of those will be major hurricanes.

It's very similar to last year, where there were 19 named storms, nine of which attained hurricane strength.

But delving deeper into their CSU research, they predict landfall probability by region, and by individual county. 

The CSU data suggests there's a 1.2 percent chance of a hurricane coming ashore in Manatee County. There's even a smaller chance (0.7 percent) of a major hurricane hitting Manatee.

There a much larger chance (27.9 percent) of tropical storm force winds hitting Manatee County. That's wind of 40 mph or more.

You can read the entire forecast and the supporting documentation here

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