2013 storm season is off and running

More than two weeks before the official start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season and the year's first named storm has appeared.

The newly upgraded tropical storm -- named Alvin -- has formed in the eastern Pacific about 665 miles southwest of Acapulco. Alvin is moving west-northwest, away from land, at about 12 mph with maximum sustained winds at 46 mph.

It's supposed to strengthen over the next few days and is likely to become a hurricane.

While it's no threat to Florida, it could point to a busier than normal year for big storms. See our May 1 post for more on that. And stay tuned to this blog as the Bradenton Herald cranks up coverage for the 2013 season.

Hurricane workshop May 23 in Lakewood Ranch

Find out what local emergency officials have learned from last year's storms at a presentation at 7 p.m. May 23 at Lakewood Ranch Town Hall.

Steve Simpson, emergency operations manager with the Manatee County Department of Emergency Management, and others will share lessons learned from Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, explain the storm surge and flood zone maps for Manatee County, and discuss emergency evacuation routes.

Members of the Lakewood Ranch Community Emergency Response Team will also be on hand.

Residents will also learn how the county emergency shelter system operates, the location of pet-friendly shelters, and arrangements for the elderly and special needs populations. Additional information will be provided about storm supplies to have on hand and how to provide for needs during the post-storm recovery period.

Information: 941-749-3507.

If you believe the odds, Manatee County likely to have quiet hurricane season

Professor William Gray and research scientist Philip Kloztbach from Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science have become the go-to guys in the last few years as hurricane predictors.

The pair have been making predictions about hurricane season for the last 30 years. Last month, they released their report for the 2013 season, which starts June 1. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will be releasing its forecast later this month.

The overview: In the Atlantic this year, we can expect 18 named storms, nine of them hurricanes. Four of those will be major hurricanes.

It's very similar to last year, where there were 19 named storms, nine of which attained hurricane strength.

But delving deeper into their CSU research, they predict landfall probability by region, and by individual county. 

The CSU data suggests there's a 1.2 percent chance of a hurricane coming ashore in Manatee County. There's even a smaller chance (0.7 percent) of a major hurricane hitting Manatee.

There a much larger chance (27.9 percent) of tropical storm force winds hitting Manatee County. That's wind of 40 mph or more.

You can read the entire forecast and the supporting documentation here. 
 

'Sandy' retired from hurricane list

The World Meteorological Organization has decided that no tropical storm or hurricane will ever be named "Sandy" again.

Storm names typically repeat every six years in both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins, according to the Weather Channel.

But when a storm occurs that is particularly memorable for its cost of lives or property, the WHO retires the name.

"Sandy" becomes the 77th name to be officially retired from the Atlantic list since 1954.

Sandy did extensive damage last year in Cuba and Jamaica before slamming into the northeastern U.S.

"Sara" will replace "Sandy" in 2018.


For those for us gearing up for the 2013 season, here are the names for this season's storms:


Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dorian
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

Two Atlantic systems pop up; Florioda unlikely to notice

Two small tropical systems have popped up on the map this week, fairly close to Florida, but neither storm is expected to have much of an effect on our weather.

Patty, sitting about 260 miles east of the Bahamas, has been nearly stationary since forming Thursday. It was downgraded Friday to a tropical depression and is expected to dissipate by Sunday.

The newer system, Tropical Storm Rafael, is about 125 miles west of Dominca with sustained winds of 40 mph. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of the Caribbean including all the Virgin Islands, Barbuda, St, Kitts, Nevis, St. Maartin, St. Lucia and Puerto Rico. Rafael is moving north-northwest at about 12 mph. It's supposed to continue its northerly track, eventually heading over Bermuda and into the northern Atlantic.

Hurricane Michael becomes first Cat 3 in Atlantic

Hurricane Michael is maintaining its strength as a Category 3 storm, the first one of the Atlantic hurricane season. The hurricane is not an immediate threat to land.
 
Michael's maximum sustained winds increased to 115 mph (185 kph) early Thursday.

Michael is centered about 1,020 miles (1,645 kilometers) west-southwest of the Azores and is moving northeast near 7 mph (11 kph).

Meanwhile, Hurricane Leslie is drifting northward in the Atlantic and threatens Bermuda. Leslie's maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 kph).

Leslie is centered about 440 miles (705 kilometers) south-southeast of Bermuda and is moving north near 1 mph (2 kph).

Swells from Leslie have been affecting the U.S. East Coast, as well as Bermuda, the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Leslie becomes a hurricane in Atlantic

Leslie has strengthened into the sixth hurricane of the Atlantic season but still remains far from land.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said this afternoon that Leslie was 465 miles (750 kilometers) south-southeast of Bermuda. It had top sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph) and was nearly stationary, moving north at just 2 mph (3 kph).

Current models show Leslie could speed up and pass over or near Bermuda in the coming days. Swells from Leslie have been affecting the U.S. East Coast, as well as Bermuda, the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Michael was gaining strength farther out to sea. It was over open waters and did not pose a threat to land.

Read more here: http://www.bradenton.com/2012/09/05/4186245/spawn-of-isaac-moves-into-the.html#storylink=cpy