Are we done?

It has certainly been a quiet past few weeks out in the Atlantic basin, as far as tropical cyclone activity is concerned. The National Hurricane Center, however, is watching a new disturbance over by the Cape Verdes. Nothing to be wary about just yet, though. We'll let you know.

Remnants of Fred

In its 8 p.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center said conditions could prompt the remnants of Hurricane Fred to redevelop. Showers and thunderstorms associated with his remains, which increased in intensity this morning, were about 900 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. There is currently a less than 30 percent of the system becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

Fred weakens

Hurricane Fred has weakened to a Category 1 storm far off in the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 p.m. advisory.

Maximum sustained winds were near 90 mph.

Fred, about 740 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands and slowing down as it drifts north near 5 mph, is forecast to diminish to a tropical storm by Saturday.

Fred update

The latest advisory on Fred from the National Hurricane Center:


...FRED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH 100 MPH WINDS...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST OR ABOUT 740 MILES...
1185 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. FRED IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.

Fred's a hurricane

With its 11 p.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center announced Fred has developed into a hurricane with winds of 75 mph.

Fred is the second named hurricane of the season.

Fred is good-looking storm on satellite images, sitting about 445 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, but forecasters expect him to weaken beginning Thursday.

-- News Editor Brent Conklin

Fred

With winds up to 65 mph, Fred is expected to be a hurricane soon.

T.D. 7

Tropical Depression No. 7 of the season has formed FAR out in the Atlantic, south of the Cape Verde Islands. The forecast has this system becoming Tropical Storm Fred over the next 24 hours. The cone track has this storm turning north mid-week, remaining closer to Africa than the United States.

A sight to see

Check out these amazing views of Hurricane Bill from NASA and NOAA's newest weather satellite, GOES-14:

Morning outlook

The wet remnants of Tropical Depression Erika sit just south of Puerto Rico and are slowly moving westward at 5-10 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

There's been talk of this system redeveloping into a tropical cyclone, but upper-level winds still aren't favorable. No matter. This system will bring plenty of rain to the islands it crosses. Shower and thunderstorm activity actually has increased over the past few hours.

The most recent wave off the coast of Africa and south of the Cape Verde Islands has changed little over the past few hours. It'll be a few days before this develops into anything worth watching.

No more Erika

Per the National Hurricane Center in its 11 p.m. advisory:

"ERIKA WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR
SO. "

Erika's demise

Wind shear continues to take a bite out of Tropical Storm Erika, which could soon be nothing more than a gusty rainmaker.

Tropical-storm warnings have been posted, meanwhile, for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

The National Hurricane Center said the storm could bring as many as 8 inches of rain to Puerto Rico. Other islands in its path could also see heavy rains as Erika erodes into a depression and then simply a low.

Florida could face some impact from Erika next week. Computer models, however, are coming to a more consensus northerly turn.

-- News Editor Brent Conklin

Erika map

Weaker Erika tough to track

A weaker Tropical Storm Erika wobbled on an uncertain path Wednesday that hiked the risk of a hit to Puerto Rico, Haiti and possibly by next week Florida.

Because the storm was so disorganized, the National Hurricane Center was struggling to both locate its center and predict its track.

Erika, expected to crawl northwest overnight, jogged southwest possibly the result of its center reforming with a resulting shift south of its future track.

At 11 a.m., Erika was moving west-northwest at 10 mph with its maximum winds down to 40 mph, the minimum for a tropical storm. It was about 100 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands and expected to cross them during the night and early Thursday morning.

A tropical storm watch was likely to be posted for Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later Thursday, which forecasters said could see up to eight inches of rain as the storm passes Friday.

The window after that is wide and the center stressed it had "low confidence" in its forecast. But if Erika holds to course, the Dominican Republic and Haiti could face similar conditions by Saturday, followed by the Turks and Caicos Islands a day later.

By Monday, Erika or perhaps its remnants could be anywhere from eastern Cuba to northeast of the Bahamas.

Wind shear was chewing at the storm and though some computer models predicted it would reach hurricane strength, the center expected it to weaken over the next few days into a depression and possibly dissolve back into a wet but not so wild wave.

A Hurricane Hunter plane sent into the storm early Wednesday detected multiple circulations and the loosely defined center may have reformed to the southwest, which further complicated the forecast.

-- McClatchy Newspapers

Tropical Storm Erika

Tropical Storm Erika has formed in the open Atlantic, east of Antigua and Barbuda, the National Weather Service reported in its 5 p.m. update.

Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph. Some slow strengthening is expected over the next couple of days.

The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph.

Computer models don't appear to be at a consensus on Erika's future track. Some have it turning north along a route similar to Bill and Danny. Others have it moving in a more westerly fashion.

-- News Editor Brent Conklin