Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Bradenton in Hurricane Rina's 'cone of uncertainty'

Hurricane Rina is gaining strength as she aims for Cancun and other Mexican resorts. Later this week could pose a threat to Florida.

As of 7 a.m. EDT, here's a map reflecting projected paths as generated by various computer models:



And here's another map from the National Hurricane Center, which places Bradenton just within the "cone of uncertainty":


UPDATED, 11:10 p.m. EDT -- The latest map doesn't show much change.


Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Hurricane Rina gaining strength on path to Cancun

Rina's five-day forecast track from the 5 p.m. advisory.

CANCUN, Mexico (AP) — Mexican authorities set up emergency shelters and cruise ships shifted course on Tuesday as Hurricane Rina strengthened off the Caribbean coast, following a projected track that has it whirling through Cancun and the resort-filled Mayan Riviera, Mexico’s most popular tourist destination.

Rina’s maximum sustained winds have increased to 110 mph (175 kph), said the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, making it a Category 2 storm. Forecasters predict it will strengthen as it nears the Mexican coast Wednesday night before rolling over the island of Cozumel, a popular dive spot and cruise-ship port, then along the coast to Cancun.

The area, dotted with Mayan ruins, also includes Playa del Carmen, another popular spot for international tourists.

Douglas Baird, 40, of Glasgow, Scotland, said he had been in Playa del Carmen for 11 days on a tour with 10 other people. He plans to stay for the five remaining days of his vacation.

“I’ll go to the bar,” he said about his plans for waiting out his first hurricane. “It won’t be a problem.”

Cancun Tourism Director Maximo Garcia said the city alone now has about 22,000 tourists even in the pre-holiday low season. Quintana Roo state, where Cancun is located, has some 83,000 hotel rooms, most in the Mayan Riviera-Cancun area.

Laura Valles, a receptionist at the Hotel Jashita in coastal Tulum, said four of its 15 guests moved inland to hotels at the archaeological site of Chichen Itza, some 90 miles (150 kilometers) west, and others were still deciding what to do.

“We are letting those with a reservation know they will have to change their dates,” Valles said.

Yassir Espinoza, a clerk at the small Plaza Azul hotel in Cozumel, said tourists were being warned of the impending storm.

“We told them if there is a hurricane there won’t be any electricity or water for at least three days,” she said.

In Cancun’s hotel zone, a string of pickup trucks hauled small boats and jet skis away from marinas, while workers at shopping malls began boarding up windows.

At least eight cruise ships were changing itineraries away from the storm’s path, said Carnival Cruise Lines spokesman Vance Gulliksen.

Three cruise ships from the company Norwegian and one from Royal Caribbean have canceled their Friday port of call in the area, said Hiram Toledo, Quintana Roo port administrator.

The area was badly damaged by Hurricane Wilma in 2005, when Cancun’s famous white-sand beaches were largely washed away. Insurance officials estimated total damage at $3 billion.

State officials said they were readying more than 1,100 shelters that could handle nearly 200,000 people, though so far there was no word of any planned evacuations.

The hurricane was centered about 275 miles (440 kilometers) southeast of Cozumel Tuesday afternoon and was moving west-northwest at near 3 mph (6 kph), the Hurricane Center said.

Forecasters said Rina was likely to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of about 115 mph (185 kph) by night.

The forecast track shows it curving east toward Cuba by the weekend, but senior hurricane specialist Michael Brennan at the hurricane center said it could also move toward southern Florida.

The center said the storm could produce as much as 16 inches (40 centimeters) of rain over at least parts of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula while raising water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet (about a meter) in places.

The rainfall particularly worries authorities in the Gulf coast state of Tabasco, where about 300,000 people are still flooded following eight days of heavy rains.

In Central America, which was affected earlier by Rina’s outer bands, fishermen on Monday found a Nicaraguan navy boat that had gone missing with 29 people aboard. It had been used to evacuate an island.

———

Associated Press writers Adriana Gomez Licon and Olga R. Rodriguez in Mexico City contributed to this story.

Hurricane Rina is a Catgeory 2 storm; Florida may be at risk

The National Hurricane Center this morning declared Hurricane Rina, currently in the western Caribbean, a Category 2 storm.

Here's the latest map showing where she might be heading:


Yes, that blue line crosses right over South Florida.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Florida in line for some tropical weather

Florida’s quiet hurricane season is in line to get a little bit of a jolt this weekend.

Here’s what we know:

* A stationary front is sitting right now to the southeast of Florida in the Caribbean.

* Some computer models are in agreement that a tropical low will form along that front over the coming days somewhere in western Caribbean.

* A bunch of rain is likely to soak Florida.

* The low could intensify into a tropical depression or storm.

* The National Hurricane Center is saying nothing on a possible storm as of this point.

“As of now (5 p.m. Wednesday), nothing has formed, so it’s hard to say. That’s why the Hurricane Center has not been talking about it,” said Tyler Fleming, meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Ruskin.

Read the rest of the story here.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Tropical Storm Ophelia forms


Tropical Storm Ophelia formed Tuesday night far out in the open Atlantic.


The storm has sustained winds of 40 mph, and some strengthening is expected over the next day or two.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

at halftime, it's an unusual hurricane season

By the most common measure, hurricane season has been running at near-record pace.

 With 14 named storms at the halfway point of the six-month season, it will only take one more to push this year into a tie for the tenth busiest on record. And if the second half proves anything like the first, 2011 could even wind up approaching the all-time record of 28 in 2005.

 By broader measures, however, the tropics have been somewhat tepid — Hurricane Irene’s deadly and damaging march up the East Coast not withstanding.

To put it simply, storm season so far has been about quantity, not quality, so far. Only three storms, Irene, Emily and Katia, have grown into hurricanes. A key index called ACE — for accumulated cyclone energy, a measure that combines the intensity and longevity of storms — sits at just 20 to 30 percent above average.

 “The distribution has been very unusual this year,’’ said Phil Klotzbach, a researcher who along with colleague William Gray produces Colorado State University’s closely watched long-term forecasts. The tally to date: Three hurricanes, two of them major, and a lot of fairly weak tropical storms, including — as Klotzbach put it — “two-short-lived pieces of garbage.’’ That would be Franklin and Jose.

For more of this Miami Herald story, see Friday's Bradenton Herald.

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Depression forms in Gulf



Tropical Depression 13 has formed over the central Gulf of Mexico, according to an 8 p.m. Thursday advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasts have it becoming Tropical Storm Lee on Friday. It is expected to approach the coast of Louisiana on Saturday.

Rainfall totals of 10-15 inches are expected over southern parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama through Sunday, with possible isolated amounts of 20 inches.

Find the particulars here.