Adrian becomes major hurricane in the Pacific

Hurricane Adrian is strengthening off the Pacific coast of Mexico and is now a major hurricane.

Forecasters say maximum sustained winds for the first hurricane of the 2011 season increased Thursday to about 115 mph (185 kph).

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami predicts that the storm's center will stay well offshore.

Hurricane Center: 40 percent chance Caribbean system has a name by Wednesday

The National Hurricane Center reported there is a 40 percent chance that a "disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms" in the western Caribbean Sea will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

As of 8 a.m. EDT, an area of low pressure was located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman and remained separated from the strongest thunderstorm activity.

Regardless of how the system develops, the Hurricane Center said it could cause flash floods and mudslides over portions of Haiti and Jamaica as it moves slowly toward the northwest or north over the next couple of days.

You can a map of the system's current location, here.

And for some very early, very rough projections on where it's headed, go here.

Ready or not, it's hurricane season



Florida's last direct strike: Hurricane Wilma, October 2005

 Today marks the first day of the 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Get use to hearing words like “center of circulation” and “tropical storm warning,” and names like Arlene, Cindy and Gert over the coming months. Here are some other tidbits to chew on:

WHAT’S IN STORE?

The National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration is predicting 12 to 18 named storms. Six to 10 could become hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes. Another interesting fact: Eight of the 13 busiest hurricane years have occurred since 2000. The all-time high for storms (28) was in 2005. That’s the last time Florida took a direct hit, too, with Wilma. (Find great video on Wilma here.)

MANATEE’S PAST

Knock on wood, but our county has escaped most hurricane seasons on record relatively unscathed. According to a recent study by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, only eight tropical storms or hurricanes have significantly impacted Manatee by either tides or winds.

A WORD OF ADVICE

We asked BayNews9 meteorologist Josh Linker for the single-most important piece of advice he would offer to Manatee residents heading into hurricane season. He simply put it this way: Get your plan in place. “Make sure that you know exactly what you need to do in the event that a hurricane or tropical storm is going to affect your area,” he said. “The last thing you want to do when the storm is approaching is to first start worrying about it.”

THIS YEAR’S STORM NAMES

Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney

Hurricane center predicts 12 to 18 named storms in '11, including 6-10 hurricanes

The National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration has issued its official forecast for the season starting June 1 in the Atlantic basin

Here's the news release:

The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:

• 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
  
  
• 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
  
  
• 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes

“The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “However we can’t count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook.”

Climate factors considered for this outlook are:

• The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
• Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer-than-average.
• La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season.

“In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook does not predict where and when any of these storms may hit. Landfall is dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches. For each storm, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center forecasts how these weather patterns affect the storm track, intensity and landfall potential.

“The tornadoes that devastated the South and the large amount of flooding we’ve seen this spring should serve as a reminder that disasters can happen anytime and anywhere. As we move into this hurricane season it’s important to remember that FEMA is just part of an emergency management team that includes the entire federal family, state, local and tribal governments, the private sector and most importantly the public,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate.

“Now is the time, if you haven’t already, to get your plan together for what you and your family would do if disaster strikes. Visit ready.gov to learn more. And if you’re a small business owner, visit www.ready.gov/business to ensure that your business is prepared for a disaster,” added Fugate.

Hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline; strong winds and flooding rainfall often pose a threat across inland areas along with the risk for tornadoes.

Next week, May 22-28, is national Hurricane Preparedness Week. To help prepare residents of hurricane-prone areas, NOAA is unveiling a new set of video and audio public service announcements featuring NOAA hurricane experts and the FEMA administrator that are available in both English and Spanish. These are available at http://www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.
The National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. It operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on Facebook.

Knock on wood, Manatee

Hurricane Frances, 2004

Knock on wood, but Manatee County has escaped most hurricane seasons relatively unscathed

According to a hurricane evacuation study by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, eight tropical storms or hurricanes have impacted Manatee by either tides or winds:

1921: Tropical Storm Five created Longboat Key Pass.

1946: Hurricane Five made landfall near Bradenton as a Category 1 storm.

1950: Hurricane Easy passed to the west in the Gulf, raising tides 6 to 8 feet from Clearwater to Sarasota.

1960: The remnants of Hurricane Donna passed to the east and deluged the area with rain.

2001: Tropical Storm Gabrielle’s center made landfall at Venice and soaked Manatee. Parrish got the worst of it — 15.1 inches of rain.

2004: Some winds from hurricanes Charley, Francis and Jeanne all affected the area.

 

Hurricane season begins June 1.

Hurricane season for 2010 officially over

Maybe it seemed like a quiet hurricane season in Manatee County, but 2010 was a busy, record breaking year.

Curtis Morgan of the Miami Herald reports:

By one set of numbers, 2010 measured up as yet another in the recent run of monster hurricane seasons. The 19 named storms ranked the third busiest on record.

By another, it was a pussycat — at least for the United States.

The six-month season ended Tuesday with the mainland U.S. escaping a major hurricane strike for a record-tying fifth straight year. South Florida, so often a prime target for powerful systems, barely got its hair mussed by Tropical Storms Bonnie and Nicole.

“We’ve never gone more than five years without a major hurricane,” said National Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen. “I’m hoping we’ll be able to set a record next year. Let’s go for six.”

That would be sweet, but don’t bet on it. The mainland’s no-majors streak incongruously coincides with a surge in storms. Since 1995, a global La Niña weather pattern and warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures have sparked a string of unusually active seasons. Seven of the dozen busiest years on record have occurred since 2000, including a record 28 storms in 2005, and forecasters don’t see the tropics cooling off anytime soon.

The 19 named Atlantic storms tied with 1887 and 1995 for the third most on record. The 12 hurricanes tied with 1969 for the second highest on record. Five of those became major hurricanes. The same condition that fired up the Atlantic cooled down the Pacific Ocean, which recorded a record low seven named storms, down from an average of 15.

Manatee County’s emergency management chief hauled out copies of all 19 named storms, including 12 hurricanes, and she said she felt lucky.

“Our people should feel blessed that none of these decided to come over Florida,” Laurie Feagans said Tuesday. “Some of these were large storms that went up the East Coast or elsewhere. I don’t think our people are aware that five of the 12 hurricanes that developed this season were major storms and, with those types of winds, would have done significant damage in our county.”

For more, see Wednesday's Bradenton Herald.

Tomas, producing heavy rains, moves on past Haiti, Cuba

The headline from the National Hurricane Center at this hour on Hurricane Tomas:

...TOMAS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...

Tomas is a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of 75 mph. Find more particulars on the storm here.
 
Next up in the path: Turks and Caicos.
 
Reports show many parts of Haiti have been inundated, but it appears the snake-bit has avoided a major catastrophe.
 
Find story, photos and more info here from our sister paper the Miami Herald.