MIAMI (AP) Tropical Storm Bonnie has formed with winds of 40 mph in the eastern Caribbean, on a course that could take it into the BP oil spill zone.
An Air Force plane sent to study the storm determined it had reached tropical storm strength Thursday.
The storm system was raking the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southern Bahamas, and it had caused flooding in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
The system is expected bring heavy winds and rains to the Florida Keys in the next few days.
A forecast map shows that the storm could reach the area of the Gulf of Mexico around the massive oil spill by sometime this weekend, but forecasters say that the path of a storm can be difficult to predict.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Tropical storm warning issued for SW Florida
The Miami Herald reports on trouble in the tropics:
The National Hurricane Center Thursday morning upgraded the tropical disturbance near the Bahamas to tropical depression three.As for where the storm may go, this is the map showing the latest computer projections:
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the center-northwestern Bahamas, and the east coast of Florida from Golden Beach south through the Keys, and on the west coast north to Bonita Springs.
Tropical storm watches have been issued from Golden Beach north to Jupiter Beach and Lake Okeechobee.
Forecasters expect the tropical depression to strengthen to a tropical storm by Thursday afternoon.
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter is on the way to check out the system. The storm is located about 265 miles southeast of Nassau, and about 405 miles east-southeast of Key Largo. It has maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour that are expected to strengthen. Its present movement is west-northwest at 15 miles per hour.
Hurricane Center watching second system
The tropics are heating up, with hurricane watchers keeping an eye on a second system in the Gulf of Mexico to see if it develops into a tropical storm or hurricane.
As National Hurricane Center forecasters decrease to 40 percent the chances that a tropical wave between the Bahamas and Hispaniola turns into something worse, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in an area of low pressure off the Mexican coast in the Bay of Campeche. As of 2 a.m. EDT, there was a 40 percent chance the system would turn into a cyclone during the next 48 hours before coming ashore in Mexico.
Similarly, the other system may prove to be less of a threat to most of Florida. The latest computer models show it taking a path through the Florida Keys, entering the Gulf of Mexico and then heading toward either Louisiana or Texas.
Even if the system remains a tropical wave or depression and doesn't become "Bonnie," it does pose a threat to efforts to permanently shut off the Deepwater Horizon oil well off Louisiana.
As National Hurricane Center forecasters decrease to 40 percent the chances that a tropical wave between the Bahamas and Hispaniola turns into something worse, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in an area of low pressure off the Mexican coast in the Bay of Campeche. As of 2 a.m. EDT, there was a 40 percent chance the system would turn into a cyclone during the next 48 hours before coming ashore in Mexico.
Similarly, the other system may prove to be less of a threat to most of Florida. The latest computer models show it taking a path through the Florida Keys, entering the Gulf of Mexico and then heading toward either Louisiana or Texas.
Even if the system remains a tropical wave or depression and doesn't become "Bonnie," it does pose a threat to efforts to permanently shut off the Deepwater Horizon oil well off Louisiana.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Tropical wave update
Upper-level winds could become a little more favorable Thursday for development of a tropical wave stalking the Caribbean.
Unfavorable winds and the effects of the high terrain of Hispaniola disrupted the structure of the wave Wednesday morning as it approached the southeastern Bahamas.
Showers and gusty winds extended eastward for several hundred miles. That activity was likely to spread over the Bahamas over the next day or two as the wave moved generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
As of 2 p.m. Wednesday, there was a medium chance, 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.
Unfavorable winds and the effects of the high terrain of Hispaniola disrupted the structure of the wave Wednesday morning as it approached the southeastern Bahamas.
Showers and gusty winds extended eastward for several hundred miles. That activity was likely to spread over the Bahamas over the next day or two as the wave moved generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
As of 2 p.m. Wednesday, there was a medium chance, 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.
Hurrican Center: System won't become depression today
The National Hurricane Center this morning said it does not expect a low-pressure system north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti to develop into a tropical depression today. Still, chances remain at 60 percent that the system will develop into Tropical Storm or Hurricane Bonnie within the next 48 hours, according to a statement issued at 8 a.m.
Showers associated with the tropical wave have decreased, and the system has become less organized, according to the Hurricane Center.
"Consquently, the Air Force reconnaissance mission has been postponed until tomorrow," a statement reads. "A tropical depression is not expected to form today but environmental conditions are still favorable for some development as the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph away from Hispaniola into the Bahamas on Thursday."
As for possible paths for the system, here's what the latest computer models show:
Showers associated with the tropical wave have decreased, and the system has become less organized, according to the Hurricane Center.
"Consquently, the Air Force reconnaissance mission has been postponed until tomorrow," a statement reads. "A tropical depression is not expected to form today but environmental conditions are still favorable for some development as the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph away from Hispaniola into the Bahamas on Thursday."
As for possible paths for the system, here's what the latest computer models show:
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Eyeing a new storm
The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday gave a tropical wave drenching Puerto Rico, Haiti and the Virgin Islands a better-than-even chance of building into Tropical Storm Bonnie.
Its current west-northwest path, which forecasters expect to continue for several days, would bring strong winds and heavy rain toward Florida by late Thursday.
Computer models forecast it crossing anywhere from Cuba to Central Florida.
The path ahead wasn’t ideal, but atmospheric conditions had improved enough to give the system a high probability, 60 percent, of becoming at least a depression and potentially a tropical storm over the next few days, the center said.
“We’re not expecting the system to quickly develop,” said John Cangialosi, a hurricane specialist at the center.
“It’s favorable enough to gain some additional strength.”
The wave, which at 2 p.m. was about 850 miles east-southeast of Miami, had grown better organized during the day, with some outer rain bands beginning to show signs of curving, Cangialosi said.
There also were signs that some lower-level circulation was beginning to build, a sign of tropical storm formation.
The center was planning to dispatch hurricane hunter planes Wednesday to assess the system.
Here's the latest computer model map from Weatherunderground.com:
Its current west-northwest path, which forecasters expect to continue for several days, would bring strong winds and heavy rain toward Florida by late Thursday.
Computer models forecast it crossing anywhere from Cuba to Central Florida.
The path ahead wasn’t ideal, but atmospheric conditions had improved enough to give the system a high probability, 60 percent, of becoming at least a depression and potentially a tropical storm over the next few days, the center said.
“We’re not expecting the system to quickly develop,” said John Cangialosi, a hurricane specialist at the center.
“It’s favorable enough to gain some additional strength.”
The wave, which at 2 p.m. was about 850 miles east-southeast of Miami, had grown better organized during the day, with some outer rain bands beginning to show signs of curving, Cangialosi said.
There also were signs that some lower-level circulation was beginning to build, a sign of tropical storm formation.
The center was planning to dispatch hurricane hunter planes Wednesday to assess the system.
Here's the latest computer model map from Weatherunderground.com:
Hurricane Center: 'High' chance tropical wave turns into cyclone
The National Hurricane Center said there is a "high" chance that a tropical wave that extends from the Northern Leeward Islands westward to the island of Hispaniola will develop into a tropical storm or hurricane over the next 48 hours.
"Although the system does not yet have a closed circulation, satellite imagery suggests that a surface low pressure are is becoming better defined just north of the eastern tip of Hispaniola," the Hurricane Center said in a statement released at 2 p.m. EDT. "Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development as the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph during the next day or so."
The system was forecast to produce heavy rains and gusty winds over the next several days in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Domincan Republic, Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas.
As for a projected path for the system, most computer models have the system crossing the Florida peninsula or the Keys and entering the Gulf of Mexico before again hitting land anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to the central Texas coast.
Accuweather.com offered the following guidance:
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are focusing on two potential scenarios.
The first depicts the storm developing, crossing Florida early in the weekend and entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a weaker system.
Impacts over the oil spill site in the central Gulf would be less than were caused by Hurricane Alex, which moved through the southern Gulf of Mexico in late June.
The second scenario depicts the system moving through the Florida Keys late in the week, developing into a stronger tropical storm or hurricane. If this were to happen, impacts to the spill site will be increased.
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