11 p.m. update: Isaac getting better organized

Includes 11 p.m. EDT update from National Hurricane Center.

The latest forecast cone for Tropical Storm Isaac shows it getting stronger and faster, and that the main track has moved a bit back toward Florida's Gulf Coast, increasing the chance Manatee County may experience high winds by Monday or Tuesday.


At 11 p.m., the National Hurricane Center notes Isaac is getting better organized as it grinds toward Haiti.  

The storm was expected to reach Haiti before daybreak Saturday. Gradually, the forecast track for Isaac has the storm moving over Cuba by Saturday and crossing the Florida Keys on Sunday.



At 11 p.m. Friday, Isaac was located about 65 miles south-southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti and 245 miles from Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. It had sustained winds of 70 mph with higher gusts, and was moving northwest at 14 mph, down from 16 mph earlier in the day. Tropical-force winds are extending 230 miles from the storm's center.

11 p.m. Thursday update: Tropical Storm Joyce forms, then is downgraded.

Tropical Storm Joyce formed in the eastern Atlantic on Thursday morning, but by 11 p.m. was downgraded to a depression, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of 11 p.m., the Hurricane Center said Joyce was located 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Island, with winds of 35 mph. It was moving west-northwest at 14 mph and should be no threat to the U.S..

11 p.m. Update: Isaac churns toward Haiti

Updated with 11 p.m.. EDT update from National Hurricane Center.

The forecast track for Tropical Storm Isaac continues to drift westward -- away from Florida -- although most of the state will feel its effects next week.

The latest projection, issued at 11 p.m. Thursday,  Isaac was located about 145 miles southeast of the Dominican Republic and moving toward the west-northwest at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 mph with higher gusts.

The center of the storm is approaching the south coast of the Dominican Republic and should reach Haiti on Friday, and Cuba Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is still forecast during the next 48 hours, and could become a hurricane Friday.

It covers a large area, with tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles, mainly to the northeast of the center.

Updated at 11 p.m.: Isaac could reach SW Florida by Monday

Tropical Storm Isaac is moving through the eastern Caribbean Sea and could reach our area by late Monday, the National Weather Service predicts. But the storm is still too far away to be certain it will actually hit the Tampa Bay area.

Bay News 9 Chief Meteorologist Mike Clay reports the storm's actual path could very easily go west or east of Florida.

"With an average error on Tropical Storm Isaac's forecast track still 5 days out," Clay said, "the margin for error is 225 miles and forecasting how strong the storm will be this far out is not possible.


Although there is good model agreement on bringing Isaac south of Puerto Rico and into Hispaniola, "we’ve looked very carefully at the details of the model solutions in days 4 and 5, and there is tremendous disagreement on the pattern, even within just one of the models," Clay said.


At 11 p.m. Tuesday, Issac was centered at 15.8N, 63.0W, about 270 miles southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. It's maximum sustained winds were 45 mph, moving west at 20 mph.


Many Caribbean islands closed schools and government offices Tuesday.

The storm is expected to eventually turn northwest, where it could pose a threat to Florida because of two high pressure systems that could steer the storm if it isn't broken up by mountains on its trek across the Caribbean, Clay said.

"A weakness in the subtropical high could bring Isaac up toward Florida by the end of the weekend and early next week. Conditions appear to be very favorable for strengthening by that time."

Isaac is expected to hit the Dominican Republic as a hurricane early Friday. It is then expected to hit Cuba as a tropical storm.

The storm is threatening to disrupt events at the Republican National Convention in Tampa next week. 
Mayor Bob Buckhorn said Wednesday morning that Tampa won't hesitate to pull the plug on the Republican National Convention if Isaac threatens the Tampa Bay area as a major storm, but the convention is an all go as of Wednesday night.

 Tropical Depression 10

Of less concern locally is Tropical Depression 10, which formed earlier Tuesday far eastern Atlantic and is expected to become Tropical Storm Joyce within the next couple of days.

The system is tracking northwest, and most computer models show it away from Florida.

UPDATED at 5 p.m.: TS Isaac growing, still on track for Florida

UPDATED at 5 p.m.: Isaac will affect Florida, emergency officials say. 

A bigger, faster and stronger Tropical Storm Isaac is moving over the Leeward Islands on its way westward, the National Weather Service says.

At 5 p.m.Wednesday, Isaac is about 25 miles south-southeast of the island of Guadeloupe with sustained winds near 45 mph, with higher gusts. Based on surface observations and hurricane hunter aircraft, tropical storm force winds are extending outward up to 80 miles, mainly to the north of the center of the storm.

Isaac's center is near latitude 16.0 north, longitude 61.2 west. The storm is moving toward the west at 22 mph and should move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, approaching the Dominican Republic Thursday night and Friday.

More strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Isaac could become a hurricane Thursday night or Friday.


The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a hurricane warning for the south coast from Isla Saona westward to the Haiti-Dominican Republic southern border. A hurricane watch has been issued for all of Haiti.

Various computer models show Isaac tracking west into the Caribbean, where numerous variables would determine whether it threatens Florida or any other part of the southeastern United States.

Long-range models have this system close to South Florida by Monday.

We're only five days out from the opening of the Republican National Convention in Tampa, scheduled to run Monday through Thursday. As Mayor Bob Buckhorn told CNN Wednesday morning, Tampa won't hesitate to pull the plug on the convention if Tropical Storm Isaac threatens the Tampa Bay area as a major storm.

Read more here: http://www.bradenton.com/2012/08/22/4167580/tampa-mayor-bob-buckhorn-on-rnc.html#storylink=cpy

Tropical Storm Isaac could threaten Florida

A new tropical storm -- Isaac -- has formed in the eastern Caribbean.

At 11 p.m. Tuesday, the system's center was located at 15.6 North, 55.6 West, about 380 miles east of Guadeloupe with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

The National Hurricane Center says Isaac is moving west at 17 mph.

Tropical storm watches are in effect for most of the Lesser Antilles, including Martinique, Dominica, St. Martin, St. Kitts, Antigua, Barbuda, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. A warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

On the forecast track, Isaac should move through Antilles Wednesday afternoon or evening, emerging in the eastern Caribbean Sea by Thursday, strengthening into a Category 1 hurricane.

From there, it's path is uncertain. Some forecast models have it curling through the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall in Southwest Florida, while others have it staying south of Cuba. If it does wind up heading this way, South Florida could begin feeling Isaac's effects as early as Sunday, forecasters say. It could also disrupt the Republican National Convention in Tampa next week.

The National Hurricane Center also is monitoring a separate disturbance in the eastern Atlantic, giving it a high chance of developing. Models indicate that system will trek northwest over the next five days.

Emilia strengthens to Cat 2 in Pacific

Out in the Pacific, Hurricane Emilia has strengthened to a Category Two storm far off the coast of Mexico but is not posing a threat to land.

The hurricane's maximum sustained winds at noon today were near 100 mph (160 kph) with additional strengthening expected, according to the Associated Press.

Emilia is centered about 710 miles south of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California and is moving west-northwest at 12 mph.

Meanwhile, farther west over the Pacific, Hurricane Daniel had maximum sustained winds near 85 mph.

Read more here: http://www.bradenton.com/2012/07/08/4107703/emilia-could-become-hurricane.html#storylink=misearch#storylink=cpy