Hurricane Watch

Ex-hurricane Rina is losing it

2011-10-28T11:06:00.000-04:00

The former Hurricane Rina has weakened to a tropical depression as it moves out to sea from Mexico's Yucatan coast, the Associated Press reports.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami reports that Rina's maximum-sustained winds are down to 35 mph (55 kph).

The forecast track shows it moving away from the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and then turning south over the weekend to stay over the Caribbean.

Additional weakening is forecast in the next 48 hours and it could become a remnant low pressure area this weekend.

Rina's center is about 55 miles (90 kilometers) north-northeast of Cancun.

Force field around Florida?

2011-10-27T20:15:00.000-04:00

Tropical Storm Rina is very near Cozumel at this hour, but any concern South Florida and the Gulf Coast of Florida had for the storm has all but dissipated now.

The latest track has it clipping the Yucatan, then basically doing a complete 180 and heading back -- as a depression, mind you -- toward the Honduras coast.

Get all the details here.

Rina's 11 p.m. forecast track

2011-10-26T23:52:00.000-04:00

The latest forecast track shows Rina circling back south after clipping the Yucatan late Thursday/early Friday.

Find all the National Hurricane Center details here.

Rina could bring weekend rain, wind to South Florida; not much to Manatee County

2011-10-26T20:49:00.002-04:00

By Daniel Chang
McClatchy Newspapers

MIAMI — Hurricane Rina awoke Wednesday in ragged shape, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory, with the storm’s eye wall losing definition and forecasters suggesting the storm will weaken significantly in the coming days.

In fact, said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade, “the storm may have already peaked. We’ve got a (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the area right now trying to confirm that.”

But while forecasts call for Rina to shear apart by Sunday under southwesterly winds and a cold front descending from the Midwest, the storm’s future track is much less certain and South Florida remains in the dreaded “cone of uncertainty” — an area stretching about 250 miles in each direction from the storm’s center — for the coming Halloween weekend.

In Key West, where the popular Fantasy Fest celebration is scheduled to culminate this weekend in costumed parades, music and merriment, the forecast calls for stormy weather.

“Folks in extreme South Florida and particularly through the Keys should be prepared for a wet and wind-swept weekend,” Feltgen said. “It’s too early to tell exactly what impacts exactly would be felt, but it’s certainly a distinct possibility there could be tropical storm conditions.”

As for Manatee, Rina’s current track would bring just an increased chance of rain Friday and Saturday, with winds near the coast of about 15 mph to 20 mph, according to Jennifer McNatt, meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Ruskin.

— Herald Night Metro Editor Brent Conklin contributed to this report.

Bradenton in Hurricane Rina's 'cone of uncertainty'

2011-10-26T07:57:00.001-04:00

Hurricane Rina is gaining strength as she aims for Cancun and other Mexican resorts. Later this week could pose a threat to Florida.

As of 7 a.m. EDT, here's a map reflecting projected paths as generated by various computer models:

And here's another map from the National Hurricane Center, which places Bradenton just within the "cone of uncertainty":

UPDATED, 11:10 p.m. EDT -- The latest map doesn't show much change.

Hurricane Rina gaining strength on path to Cancun

2011-10-25T18:13:00.000-04:00

Rina's five-day forecast track from the 5 p.m. advisory.

CANCUN, Mexico (AP) — Mexican authorities set up emergency shelters and cruise ships shifted course on Tuesday as Hurricane Rina strengthened off the Caribbean coast, following a projected track that has it whirling through Cancun and the resort-filled Mayan Riviera, Mexico’s most popular tourist destination.

Rina’s maximum sustained winds have increased to 110 mph (175 kph), said the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, making it a Category 2 storm. Forecasters predict it will strengthen as it nears the Mexican coast Wednesday night before rolling over the island of Cozumel, a popular dive spot and cruise-ship port, then along the coast to Cancun.

The area, dotted with Mayan ruins, also includes Playa del Carmen, another popular spot for international tourists.

Douglas Baird, 40, of Glasgow, Scotland, said he had been in Playa del Carmen for 11 days on a tour with 10 other people. He plans to stay for the five remaining days of his vacation.

“I’ll go to the bar,” he said about his plans for waiting out his first hurricane. “It won’t be a problem.”

Cancun Tourism Director Maximo Garcia said the city alone now has about 22,000 tourists even in the pre-holiday low season. Quintana Roo state, where Cancun is located, has some 83,000 hotel rooms, most in the Mayan Riviera-Cancun area.

Laura Valles, a receptionist at the Hotel Jashita in coastal Tulum, said four of its 15 guests moved inland to hotels at the archaeological site of Chichen Itza, some 90 miles (150 kilometers) west, and others were still deciding what to do.

“We are letting those with a reservation know they will have to change their dates,” Valles said.

Yassir Espinoza, a clerk at the small Plaza Azul hotel in Cozumel, said tourists were being warned of the impending storm.

“We told them if there is a hurricane there won’t be any electricity or water for at least three days,” she said.

In Cancun’s hotel zone, a string of pickup trucks hauled small boats and jet skis away from marinas, while workers at shopping malls began boarding up windows.

At least eight cruise ships were changing itineraries away from the storm’s path, said Carnival Cruise Lines spokesman Vance Gulliksen.

Three cruise ships from the company Norwegian and one from Royal Caribbean have canceled their Friday port of call in the area, said Hiram Toledo, Quintana Roo port administrator.

The area was badly damaged by Hurricane Wilma in 2005, when Cancun’s famous white-sand beaches were largely washed away. Insurance officials estimated total damage at $3 billion.

State officials said they were readying more than 1,100 shelters that could handle nearly 200,000 people, though so far there was no word of any planned evacuations.

The hurricane was centered about 275 miles (440 kilometers) southeast of Cozumel Tuesday afternoon and was moving west-northwest at near 3 mph (6 kph), the Hurricane Center said.

Forecasters said Rina was likely to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of about 115 mph (185 kph) by night.

The forecast track shows it curving east toward Cuba by the weekend, but senior hurricane specialist Michael Brennan at the hurricane center said it could also move toward southern Florida.

The center said the storm could produce as much as 16 inches (40 centimeters) of rain over at least parts of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula while raising water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet (about a meter) in places.

The rainfall particularly worries authorities in the Gulf coast state of Tabasco, where about 300,000 people are still flooded following eight days of heavy rains.

In Central America, which was affected earlier by Rina’s outer bands, fishermen on Monday found a Nicaraguan navy boat that had gone missing with 29 people aboard. It had been used to evacuate an island.

———

Associated Press writers Adriana Gomez Licon and Olga R. Rodriguez in Mexico City contributed to this story.

Hurricane Rina is a Catgeory 2 storm; Florida may be at risk

2011-10-25T08:28:00.000-04:00

The National Hurricane Center this morning declared Hurricane Rina, currently in the western Caribbean, a Category 2 storm.

Here's the latest map showing where she might be heading:

Yes, that blue line crosses right over South Florida.

Florida in line for some tropical weather

2011-10-05T19:58:00.000-04:00

Florida’s quiet hurricane season is in line to get a little bit of a jolt this weekend.

Here’s what we know:

* A stationary front is sitting right now to the southeast of Florida in the Caribbean.

* Some computer models are in agreement that a tropical low will form along that front over the coming days somewhere in western Caribbean.

* A bunch of rain is likely to soak Florida.

* The low could intensify into a tropical depression or storm.

* The National Hurricane Center is saying nothing on a possible storm as of this point.

“As of now (5 p.m. Wednesday), nothing has formed, so it’s hard to say. That’s why the Hurricane Center has not been talking about it,” said Tyler Fleming, meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Ruskin.

Read the rest of the story here.

Tropical Storm Ophelia forms

2011-09-20T23:59:00.000-04:00

Tropical Storm Ophelia formed Tuesday night far out in the open Atlantic.

The storm has sustained winds of 40 mph, and some strengthening is expected over the next day or two.

at halftime, it's an unusual hurricane season

2011-09-15T21:52:00.000-04:00

By the most common measure, hurricane season has been running at near-record pace.

With 14 named storms at the halfway point of the six-month season, it will only take one more to push this year into a tie for the tenth busiest on record. And if the second half proves anything like the first, 2011 could even wind up approaching the all-time record of 28 in 2005.

By broader measures, however, the tropics have been somewhat tepid — Hurricane Irene’s deadly and damaging march up the East Coast not withstanding.

To put it simply, storm season so far has been about quantity, not quality, so far. Only three storms, Irene, Emily and Katia, have grown into hurricanes. A key index called ACE — for accumulated cyclone energy, a measure that combines the intensity and longevity of storms — sits at just 20 to 30 percent above average.

“The distribution has been very unusual this year,’’ said Phil Klotzbach, a researcher who along with colleague William Gray produces Colorado State University’s closely watched long-term forecasts. The tally to date: Three hurricanes, two of them major, and a lot of fairly weak tropical storms, including — as Klotzbach put it — “two-short-lived pieces of garbage.’’ That would be Franklin and Jose.

For more of this Miami Herald story, see Friday's Bradenton Herald.

Depression forms in Gulf

2011-09-01T19:56:00.000-04:00

Tropical Depression 13 has formed over the central Gulf of Mexico, according to an 8 p.m. Thursday advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasts have it becoming Tropical Storm Lee on Friday. It is expected to approach the coast of Louisiana on Saturday.

Rainfall totals of 10-15 inches are expected over southern parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama through Sunday, with possible isolated amounts of 20 inches.

Find the particulars here.

Katia now a hurricane

2011-08-31T23:26:00.001-04:00

Katia become the second hurricane of the Atlantic storm season, the National Hurricane Center reported in its 11 p.m. advisory Wednesday.

The storm has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and could hit major hurricane strength come the weekend.

Here are all the particulars from the hurricane center.

Katia, far right, already looks impressive.

As Katia churns, new potential trouble emerges in Caribbean

2011-08-31T07:57:00.000-04:00

As Tropical Storm Katia churns across the Atlantic toward hurricane status and an uncertain proximity to Florida, another potential trouble spot has emerged in the Caribbean Sea.

The National Hurricane Center reports that a tropical wave, made up "disorganized cloudiness and showers," has developed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas. It was expected to move west-northwestward across the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and into the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.

That said, the Hurricane Center said there was only a 10 percent, or "low", chance of the system developing into a tropical storm within the next two days.

11 p.m. Irene update

2011-08-27T23:05:00.000-04:00

From the latest National Hurricane Center advisory:

"...IRENE DRENCHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH HEAVY RAINS AS IT SKIRTS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA..."

Irene is maintaining its maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Pressure is up slightly to 954 mb.

A wind gust of 67 mph was recently reported at Cape Hatteras, N.C., and one of 52 mph was reported at Philadelphia International Airport.

Here's the full advisory with links to maps and such.

9 p.m. Irene update from the National Weather Service

2011-08-27T21:19:00.000-04:00

At this hour:

• Hurricane Irene is lashing Virginia’s Tidewater region and the southern Delmarva peninsula with heavy rains and hurricane-force gusts.

• Despite being over land for much of the day, Irene still has maximum sustained winds of 80 mph.

• This is a huge storm. Rain from it currently extends from Maine all the way south to North Carolina. Tropical storm-force winds still extend up to 290 miles from the center of circulation, while hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles.
• Irene is picking up the pace on her forward speed, now booking north-northeast at 16 mph.

• Central pressure still remains a significantly low 951 mb.

• The storm is expected to maintain hurricane strength as it moves up the coast and through Long Island. A drop in strength is expected after its center strikes New England.

• A wind gust of 76 mph was recently reported at the Williamsburg-Jamestown, Va., airport.

• A storm surge of about 5 feet has been observed at Oregon Inlet, N.C.

• A storm surge of 4 feet has occurred thus far at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.

• Rainfall totals of 10-14 inches have already occurred over a large portion of eastern North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia.

• The highest rainfall total of 14.0 inches was reported at Bunyan, N.C.

• Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are still possible throughout the storm area.

• Isolated tornadoes are possible along the coasts of Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey through tonight.

11 p.m. Irene update: Closing in on Outer Banks

2011-08-26T23:59:00.000-04:00

Details as Hurricane Irene makes its way toward a U.S. landfall:

* Irene is a Cat. 2 with 100 mph winds and pressure of 951 mb.

* It's eased up on forward speed to 13 mph, heading north-northeast.

* It is 140 miles south of Cape Lookout, N.C.

* The forecast track now has Irene clipping the Outer Banks, then staying out over the ocean until slamming into Long Island at the Nassau-Suffolk county line.

* No strengthening is expected before landfall with North Carolina, although a decrease in strength is likely before another landfall up the Eastern Seaboard.

* Hurricane-force winds extend 90 miles from the center of circulation. Tropical storm-force winds extend out 290 miles.

Get a good glimpse of where Irene is at right now here.

Video: First look at damage in Bahamas

2011-08-26T00:37:00.004-04:00

11 p.m. Irene update: Pressure down; now heading north

2011-08-25T23:33:00.000-04:00

Highlights of the 11 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

* The central pressure has dropped again, this time down to 942 mb.

* Winds remain same at 115 mph. Some strengthening possible Friday.

* Forward speed direction is now north, still at 14 mph.

* Irene's impact has a tremendous reach. Tropical storm-force winds extend 290 miles out from the center of circulation. Hurricane-force winds extend 80 miles from the center.

All hurricane center details here.

Hurricane Irene leaving Bahamas in its wake

2011-08-25T20:12:00.002-04:00

The GOES-13 satellite captures Hurricane Irene moving through the Bahamas at 10:02 a.m. Thursday. Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project

As of 8 p.m., Hurricane Irene is pulling away from the Bahamas, and all signs point to strengthening as its central pressure has dropped to 946 mb from 950 mb at the 5 p.m. update.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 115 mph. Forward movement is still north-northwest at 14 mph.

The forecast cone is tightening, meaning forecasters are becoming even more certain of its path.

The forecast right now puts landfall just west of Morehead City, N.C., at around 2 p.m. Saturday, then skirting up the coast, mostly inland through North Carolina, Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey and smack into New York City on Sunday afternoon.

Get National Hurricane Center details and maps here.

And check out this cool tracking website here.

8 p.m. forecast track

Hurricane Irene still a potential threat to Bradenton

2011-08-22T08:11:00.000-04:00

Being as Bradenton and the rest of Tampa Bay is still in Hurricane Irene's "cone of uncertainty," it is too early to breathe easy. But slowly, various computer models keep moving the project path of the the storm -- which slammed Puerto Rico early Monday morning -- to the east of the region.

Here's what the latest models, including two that are much too close to us for comfort, show:

Video: An in-depth look at Irene

2011-08-20T22:55:00.000-04:00

A YouTube video posted by "xtremeweathertracker" gives a closer look at the details of Tropical Storm Irene (then Invest 97L). It gives a good sense of the factors playing into the storm's possible path.

Tropical Storm Irene forms; Florida in five-day forecast cone

2011-08-20T19:57:00.001-04:00

Tropical Storm Irene has formed Saturday night east of the Leeward Islands and early indicators have Florida as a potential target late next week.

With maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, Irene’s center was 215 miles east-southeast of Guadeloupe at 7 p.m., according to a special advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as several other islands in the region. Hurricane conditions could occur in the Dominican Republic late Monday.

Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 120 miles from the center of circulation.

Any potential strike on Florida will hinge on Irene's trek through the Caribbean, and whether it stays south over water or crosses over land masses such as the mountainous Hispaniola.

Florida residents are advised to monitor Irene's track over the coming days.

Find more maps and particulars on Irene here.

Irene just right of center Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Harvey makes landfall over Belize

2011-08-20T17:04:00.000-04:00

MIAMI (AP) -- Tropical Storm Harvey has made landfall over Belize and is expected to move into northern Guatemala later Saturday.

At 5 p.m., Harvey had winds of 50 mph, was center 45 miles west-southwest of Belize City and was moving west-northwest at about 13 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Harvey is expected to start weakening now that it's moving over land. The storm is expected to bring as much as 6 inches of rain to parts of Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Forecasters say flash floods and mudslides are possible.

Tropical storm warnings were still in effect for coastal Belize south of Belize City.

Harvey picking up steam

2011-08-19T23:21:00.001-04:00

Tropical Storm Harvey has ratcheted up in strength Friday night as it skirts along the northern coast of Honduras with winds now up to 60 mph, according to the 11 p.m. advisory from the NHC.

A landfall, possibly at hurricane strength, is expected to come somewhere along the coast of Belize.

Get the latest maps here.

Find a video forecast here.

Tropical Storm Harvey forms; new waves looming

2011-08-19T22:03:00.000-04:00

Tropical Storm Harvey formed Friday off Honduras but the system Florida ought to keep an eye on next week trails 2,500 miles behind in the Atlantic Ocean.

Harvey became the eighth named storm of a season just entering its traditional peak period, with two more waves looming that the National Hurricane Center gave a medium chance of developing.

Harvey posed a threat to Central America, where it was expected to brush the Honduran coast before making landfall in Belize sometime Saturday. Forecasters said the storm could bring winds of up to 40 mph and three to five inches of rain across Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and Mexico, potentially enough to trigger flooding and mudslides.

Forecasters also were watching a large tropical wave 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The wave was moving from dry air into an area more conducive to development, center spokesman Dennis Feltgen said.

“Most of the computer models have latched on to this and are spinning it up,’’ he said.

It could strengthen over the weekend and impact Puerto Rico by Monday and, potentially, the Dominican Republic and Haiti Tuesday or Wednesday. From there, several models steer it generally toward Florida and the East Coast.

But Feltgen stressed that forecasts out five days or more can change dramatically. Just two weeks ago, for instance, Tropical Storm Emily broke apart as it crossed Hispaniola.

Computer models also suggested a second broad low pressure system off the African coast posed less of a threat, with its path potentially heading more northwest into the open Atlantic.

-- Curtis Morgan, Miami Herald

Tropical depression forms in western Caribbean

2011-08-19T00:08:00.000-04:00

A tropical depression has formed in the western Caribbean, according to the 11 p.m. Thursday advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

The system is about 80 miles east-northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph. Potential strengthening into a tropical storm could occur Friday.

Find the forecast maps here.

Tropical Storm Gert strengthens in Atlantic Ocean

2011-08-14T17:16:00.000-04:00

U.S. forecasters say Tropical Storm Gert has strengthened in the Atlantic Ocean and could approach Bermuda Sunday night or early Monday.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Sunday that a tropical storm warning has been issued for Bermuda, though Gert's center was still about 255 miles (410 kilometers) from the islands.

Gert was moving north-northwest at 8 mph (13 kph) and had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (72 kph). It could get stronger as it makes its way toward Bermuda.

Forecasters say Gert is projected to remain well away from the U.S. East Coast.

Emily breaks apart over Hispaniola; 20 inches of rain possible in isolated areas

2011-08-04T17:41:00.001-04:00

Emily is the big mass just to the left of center.

Former Tropical Storm Emily has broken apart after causing floods and damaging hundreds of homes in Haiti.

National Hurricane Center forecasters in Miami said late Thursday afternoon that the storm is now a low pressure system that is dumping rains over Hispaniola. All watches and warnings have been canceled.

Strong winds whipped through palm trees in the capital of Haiti, while heavier rains fell further north, damaging homes, as well as a cholera treatment center. But there were no reports of deaths.

Although Emily has weakened, it is still capable of producing total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches possible over the Dominican Republic and Haiti, according to the hurricane center's 5 p.m. advisory. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Forecasters are monitoring the system for redevelopment.

For now, Florida isn't in Emily's cone -- but keep watching

2011-08-04T14:15:00.000-04:00

For now, South Florida remains out of the cone for Tropical Storm Emily but forecasters say the slow-moving system should be closely monitored. Here's the latest full report.

Tropical Storm Emily bearing down on Haiti

2011-08-04T11:10:00.004-04:00

Here's the 11 a.m. update on Tropical Storm Emily from The National Hurricane Center:

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI LATER TODAY AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

Emily's winds were holding steady at 50 mph, but the center expects some weakening in the next 24 hours as the storm hits the high terrain of Haiti and Eastern Cuba. The winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, Guantanamo and Holguin in Eastern Cuba. To see the effects so far, check out this photo gallery.

The projected path still has South Florida in its target.

Where is Emily going?

2011-08-03T23:57:00.000-04:00

Here are the latest computer models, thanks to Weather Underground.

Haiti, Dominican Republic await rain wrath of Emily

2011-08-03T23:48:00.002-04:00

Tropical Storm Emily is still moving westward with sustained winds of 50 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center's 11 p.m. advisory.

Heavy rains are expected to slam Hispaniola on Thursday. The Dominican Republic and Haiti could see isolated amounts of 10 inches of rain in spots. Flash flooding and massive landslides are feared in mountainous regions.

Find the latest maps and charts here.

Read the latest Associated Press story here.

11 p.m. advisory forecast track for Emily

Emily watch: Haiti, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic in line for heavy rains, mudslides

2011-08-02T20:15:00.000-04:00

Tropical Storm Emily, which continues to move west at this hour with winds of 50 mph, could bring torrential rains and possibly life-threatening flash floods and mudslides to regions of Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and Haiti over the coming days, according to the National Hurricane Center's 8 p.m. advisory.

Emily is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain throughout those countries through Thursday, including isolated amounts of 10 inches.

Emily sits about 165 miles south of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and has a forward speed of 14 mph. A gradual turn to the northwest is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical storm-force winds extend 105 miles out from the center.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.

On the forecast track, the center of Emily will move across Hispaniola late Wednesday and into the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday.

The predicted path also has Emily's center well off the Atlantic coast of central Florida at 2 p.m. Tuesday.

Bradenton possibly in Emily's way -- but just barely

2011-08-02T11:17:00.001-04:00

With each update from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Emily appears to be less of a threat to the Tampa Bay region.

With all things tropical, the projections could change but as of 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday, this was the Hurricane's latest projection on where the storm may be heading. Note that the Bradenton area is on the western limit of the "cone of uncertainty."

But remember, it may be too early to determine exactly where Emily is going, as this map showing projections of various computer models indicates:

Is Tropical Storm Emily coming to Florida? UPDATED

2011-08-01T20:16:00.001-04:00

Tropical Storm Emily has formed southeast of Puerto Rico, and a couple of early projection maps suggest it might be smart for Floridians to pay attention.

UPDATED, 10:55 p.m. EDT -- This looks better for Florida:

Next up? Soon-to-be Emily

2011-07-30T17:59:00.000-04:00

The area in the red circle is what will soon be Tropical Storm Emily.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure system located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continue to show signs of organization, according to a 2 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for a tropical depression to form over the next couple of days. It would be called Emily.

This system has a high chance (80 percent) of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

Stay tuned. Another update will be out around 8 p.m.

Don makes landfall, downgraded to tropical depression

2011-07-29T23:37:00.000-04:00

Tropical Storm Don has fizzled fast upon landfall tonight on the Texas coast near Baffin Bay.

According to the 11 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Don has been downgraded to a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Rainfall totals are expected to be 1 to 2 inches with isolated areas hitting 3 inches.

No strengthening expected before Don makes landfall

2011-07-29T19:48:00.000-04:00

The center of Tropical Storm Don will make landfall on the Texas coast near Baffin Bay in the coming hours. Further strengthening is no longer anticipated, according to an 8 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

The storm's center is about 50 miles south-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Don has winds of 50 mph and it is moving west-northwest at 16 mph.

Tropical Storm Don closes in on Texas coast

2011-07-29T17:15:00.000-04:00

Tropical Storm Don on Friday afternoon.

Rainbands are spreading onshore as Tropical Storm Don zeroes in on a Texas coast landfall tonight.

According to the 5 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Don still has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and is moving west-northwest at 16 mph. The storm's center is about 95 miles to the southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.

Find the latest maps and charts here.

Tropical storm-force winds extend 105 miles from the center, mainly to the north and east.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Texas coast, from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Matagorda.

Forecasters say some strengthening is still possible before landfall. Storm surge of 1 to 2 feet is expected, and rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are predicted, with isolated totals hitting up to 6 inches.

Tropical wave being watched out in Atlantic

2011-07-28T23:58:00.000-04:00

As Tropical Storm Don churns toward the Texas coast, the National Hurricane Center has identified a new spot of interest far out in the Atlantic.

A large tropical wave about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is moving westward near 20 mph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some slow development over the next few days. For now, the system has a low chance (20 percent) of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

Stay tuned.

Don's winds up to 50 mph; not expected to hit hurricane strength before landfall

2011-07-28T23:12:00.000-04:00

Tropical Storm Don is not expected to become a hurricane prior to its expected landfall along the Texas coast.

In its 11 p.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center in Miami says Don's maximum sustained winds increased slightly to 50 mph. Only slight strengthening is forecast before the storm makes landfall on the Texas coast late Friday or Saturday.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande to San Luis Pass.

The storm is centered about 370 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, and is moving west-northwest at 14 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend 100 miles out from the center.

Don on track for Texas landfall Friday night, early Saturday

2011-07-28T17:45:00.001-04:00

Tropical Storm Don continues to hustle northwestward toward the Texas coast, according to the National Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. advisory.

Don has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and is moving along at 16 mph. It is about 425 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi and 395 miles east of Brownsville.

Some slow strengthening is possible over the next 36 hours.

A tropical storm warning (tropical storm conditions expected within 36 hours) is in effect from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass. A tropical storm watch (tropical storm conditions possible within 48 hours) is in effect south of Port Mansfield to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

The center of Don is expected to make landfall along the Texas coast Friday night or early Saturday morning. Find the latest maps and tracks here.

Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center.

Don is forecast to bring a storm surge of 1 to 2 feet, mainly along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.
Don is expected to produce rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches from the central Texas coast westward into south central Texas, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches.

11 p.m. update: Don stays on course toward Texas

2011-07-27T22:46:00.000-04:00

In its 11 p.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm watch for the Texas coast from Port Mansfield northward to just west of San Luis Pass.

Tropical Storm Don has changed little since the 5 p.m. update. The system has winds of 40 mph and has stayed steady on its west-northwest track at a speed of 12 mph.

Its center of circulation is about 675 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

Some strengthening is forecast over the next 48 hours. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to check Don at daybreak.

A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours.

Find forecast maps and charts for Don here.

Tropical Storm Don forms in Caribbean; Texas in crosshairs

2011-07-27T17:24:00.000-04:00

Tropical Storm Don has formed over the southern Gulf of Mexico, according to a 5 p.m. advisory by the National Hurricane Center. Its projected track takes it into southern Texas.

The storm, about 120 miles north of Cozumel, Mexico, has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It is moving west-northwest at 12 mph. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect at this time, but the northwestern Gulf coast should monitor Don's progress.

Tropical depression or storm likely to form near Mexico.

2011-07-27T14:15:00.003-04:00

There is an almost 100 percent chance that a tropical depression or tropical storm will form about 90 miles north of Cancun, Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The Hurricane Center reported at 2 p.m. EDT that an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was en route to the area.

"Interests in the central and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor this system as it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph," the Hurricane Center said.

The latest computer models have the system heading toward the northwest and landing somewhere along the Texas Gulf coast.

Tropical wave in Caribbean could develop

2011-07-27T00:01:00.000-04:00

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just to the south of extreme western Cuba continue to show signs of organization, the National Hurricane Center reported Thursday night in an 8 p.m. advisory.

Surface observations, however, indicate the system does not have a closed circulation at this time. Slow development of this system is possible over the coming days as it moves toward the west-northwest near 15 mph.

The system has a 40 percent of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Dora reaches Cat. 4 strength off Mexico

2011-07-20T23:26:00.000-04:00

ACAPULCO, Mexico (AP) -- Hurricane Dora rapidly grew into a Category 4 storm off Mexico's Pacific coast Wednesday while keeping out to sea and threatening coastal areas only with rain and tropical storm-strength winds.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said late Wednesday that the storm's top sustained winds had reached 135 mph. It said Dora's center was about 220 miles south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas and moving west-northwest at 15 mph.

The fourth hurricane of the eastern Pacific season was forecast to stay offshore as it moved parallel to the coast for the next day or so. It could strengthen more before weakening begins Friday, forecasters said.

Mexican authorities issued a tropical storm watch from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, meaning tropical storm conditions were possible within 12 to 24 hours.

The hurricane's outer bands brought rains to much of Mexico's southern coast, including the resort city of Acapulco. Police walked the beaches advising swimmers about the risk of strong waves.

In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Cindy formed well out to sea and posed no threat to land. Its center was 800 miles east-northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Bret was forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Thursday as it moved northeast away from the Bahamas and well off the U.S. Atlantic coast.

Bret's maximum sustained winds were 40 mph. Its center was about 235 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and 455 miles west of Bermuda.

Cindy forms; no threat to U.S.

2011-07-20T17:56:00.001-04:00

Tropical Storm Cindy has formed far out in the Atlantic, according to a 5 p.m. advisory from the National Weather Service. It is not a threat to the East Coast. The storm has maximum sustained winds near 40 mph and is swiftly heading northeast at 24 mph.

Tropical Storm Bret, meanwhile, is a little closer to the Eastern Seaboard, but also no threat as it is heading northeast at 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.
Find the particulars on Bret and Cindy here.

Tracking Bret's path

2011-07-18T12:08:00.000-04:00

Here's the latest tracking map for Bret. And here's a link to Bradenton.com's hurricane section, live from AccuWeather.

Tropical Storm Bret drifts northeast off Bahamas

2011-07-18T08:47:00.000-04:00

Tropical storm Bret is swirling in the Atlantic Ocean off the Bahamas and forecast to stay away from the U.S. East Coast.

Authorities in the Bahamas issued a tropical storm warning early today for Grand Bahama and the Abaco Islands, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected in the next few hours.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said the storm's center was about 65 miles (105 kilometers) north-northwest of Great Abaco Island. Its maximum sustained winds were 50 mph (85 kph) and it was drifting northeast at 3 mph (6 kph). Bret was expected to begin moving north-northeast later Monday and to strengthen over the next day or two.

The storm could produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over the northwest Bahamas.

Tropical depression forms over Bahamas

2011-07-17T18:04:00.003-04:00

A tropical depression has formed in the Atlantic Ocean near the northern Bahamas and forecasters say it could strengthen into a tropical storm in the next day.

Authorities in the Bahamas issued a tropical storm watch for Grand Bahama and the Abaco Islands. The storm isn't expected to approach the U.S.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center says the storm's center was located Sunday afternoon about 60 miles (96 kilometers) northeast of Freeport on Grand Bahama. Its maximum sustained winds were near 35 miles per hour (56 kph) and it was drifting slowly south at 2 mph (3 km).

Forecasters expected the storm to turn to the north or northeast and say it could strengthen into a tropical storm by Sunday night.

Hurricane Center: New system threatens Mexico

2011-07-13T09:27:00.000-04:00

There is about a 50-50 chance that a system of bad weather in the Gulf of Mexico off the Mexican coast will turn into a tropical depression before heading inland, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of 8 a.m. EDT, a system of low pressure located about 50 miles east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico, had become better organized.

"Regardless of development, this system will bring rain and gusty winds to the southwestern Gulf coast of Mexico as it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph," the Hurricane Center said in a statement.

If the system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, it will be named Bret.

Hurricane Center: 'Low chance' that 2 weather systems turn tropical

2011-07-11T13:53:00.000-04:00

The National Hurricane Center is keep an eye on two weather systems located where tropical storms and hurricanes like to form, but as of early Monday there was only a "low chance" that either would turn into more serious trouble during the next 48.

Here's how the Hurricane Center is describing the systems. (The capitalization is theirs.):

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

'Low chance' that our cloudy skies mean tropical storm is on its way

2011-07-07T14:04:00.000-04:00

The National Hurricane Center says there is a "low chance" that an area of cloudiness stretching from the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico to Florida to the northwestern Bahamas will develop into anything to worry about.

Here are the Hurricane Center's exact words, as of 2 p.m. EDT (The capitalization is theirs, too.)

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

You have been advised.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Center forecasters are watching another system off the northern coast of South America.

Tropical Storm Arlene forms in Gulf; not likely to threaten U.S.

2011-06-28T21:25:00.000-04:00

Forecasters say Tropical Storm Arlene has formed in the Gulf of Mexico but is not likely to threaten the U.S. coast.

The government of Mexico on Tuesday issued Tropical Storm warnings for the northeastern coast from Barra De Nautla north to Bahia Algodones. The storm is predicted to hug much of the coast over the next few days.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami says Arlene is about 280 miles east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico. The center had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It is the first named storm in the Atlantic this season.

The main threat to Mexico is heavy rains that could cause flash floods and mudslides. Forecasters say extreme south Texas also could get some rain from the system.

'Low' chance system off Mexican Gulf coast goes tropical

2011-06-27T08:45:00.000-04:00

The National Weather Service is keeping an eye on "a broad area of low pressure" over the Bay of Campeche off the Mexican Gulf coast.

Currently, there is only a 20 percent chance of the system going tropical within the next 48 hours, but upper-level winds "are forecast to become more favorable over the next couple of days," the Weather Service said in a bulletin Monday morning.

Regardless of how it develops, the system was expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of eastern Mexico and Central America during the next day or two as it moves slowly to the west-northwest.

Beatriz reaches hurricane strength off Mexico's Pacific coast

2011-06-20T23:47:00.001-04:00

ARTURO PEREZ
Associated Press
The National Weather Service says Tropical Storm Beatriz has reached hurricane strength, as its heavy rains and strong winds have begun pounding resort beaches on Mexico's Pacific coast.

Authorities closed the popular tourist ports of Acapulco and Manzanillo ahead of the hurricane's arrival.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Beatriz had sustained winds of about 75 miles per hour (121 kph) and is expected to brush over Mexico's southwestern coast before heading back out to sea.

Beatriz is located about 85 miles (140 kms) southeast of Manzanillo and moving northwest at 12 mph (19 kph).

Tropical storm forms off Pacific coast of Mexico

2011-06-19T23:26:00.000-04:00

MIAMI (AP) -- Forecasters say Tropical Storm Beatriz is strengthening off the coast of Mexico in the Pacific Ocean and could become a hurricane by late Monday.

The National Hurricane Center said Sunday evening that rain bands have started hitting the coast. The storm is about 195 miles (315 kilometers) south of Zihuatanejo. It had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (72 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 12 mph (19 kph).

A hurricane warning is in effect from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo. A hurricane watch has been issued from Manzanillo west to La Fortuna. A tropical storm warning is in effect for other parts of the Mexican coast.

The center of Beatriz is expected to approach the coast by late Monday or early Tuesday when it could be a hurricane.

Adrian hits Cat. 4

2011-06-09T19:26:00.000-04:00

The latest at 6:30 p.m. from the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Adrian in Pacific: Its winds are now at 130 mph, Category 4 strength. The good news: It is forecast -- for now -- to stay offshore.

Get the latest from NHC here.

Adrian becomes major hurricane in the Pacific

2011-06-09T11:13:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Adrian is strengthening off the Pacific coast of Mexico and is now a major hurricane.

Forecasters say maximum sustained winds for the first hurricane of the 2011 season increased Thursday to about 115 mph (185 kph).

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami predicts that the storm's center will stay well offshore.

Hurricane Center: 40 percent chance Caribbean system has a name by Wednesday

2011-06-05T00:22:00.001-04:00

The National Hurricane Center reported there is a 40 percent chance that a "disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms" in the western Caribbean Sea will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

As of 8 a.m. EDT, an area of low pressure was located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman and remained separated from the strongest thunderstorm activity.

Regardless of how the system develops, the Hurricane Center said it could cause flash floods and mudslides over portions of Haiti and Jamaica as it moves slowly toward the northwest or north over the next couple of days.

You can a map of the system's current location, here.

And for some very early, very rough projections on where it's headed, go here.

Ready or not, it's hurricane season

2011-06-01T00:11:00.000-04:00

Florida's last direct strike: Hurricane Wilma, October 2005

Today marks the first day of the 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Get use to hearing words like “center of circulation” and “tropical storm warning,” and names like Arlene, Cindy and Gert over the coming months. Here are some other tidbits to chew on:

WHAT’S IN STORE?

The National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration is predicting 12 to 18 named storms. Six to 10 could become hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes. Another interesting fact: Eight of the 13 busiest hurricane years have occurred since 2000. The all-time high for storms (28) was in 2005. That’s the last time Florida took a direct hit, too, with Wilma. (Find great video on Wilma here.)

MANATEE’S PAST

Knock on wood, but our county has escaped most hurricane seasons on record relatively unscathed. According to a recent study by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, only eight tropical storms or hurricanes have significantly impacted Manatee by either tides or winds.

A WORD OF ADVICE

We asked BayNews9 meteorologist Josh Linker for the single-most important piece of advice he would offer to Manatee residents heading into hurricane season. He simply put it this way: Get your plan in place. “Make sure that you know exactly what you need to do in the event that a hurricane or tropical storm is going to affect your area,” he said. “The last thing you want to do when the storm is approaching is to first start worrying about it.”

THIS YEAR’S STORM NAMES

Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney

Hurricane center predicts 12 to 18 named storms in '11, including 6-10 hurricanes

2011-05-19T11:51:00.000-04:00

The National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration has issued its official forecast for the season starting June 1 in the Atlantic basin

Here's the news release:

The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:
12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:

6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:

3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes

“The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “However we can’t count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook.”

Climate factors considered for this outlook are:
The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer-than-average.
La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season.
“In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook does not predict where and when any of these storms may hit. Landfall is dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches. For each storm, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center forecasts how these weather patterns affect the storm track, intensity and landfall potential.

“The tornadoes that devastated the South and the large amount of flooding we’ve seen this spring should serve as a reminder that disasters can happen anytime and anywhere. As we move into this hurricane season it’s important to remember that FEMA is just part of an emergency management team that includes the entire federal family, state, local and tribal governments, the private sector and most importantly the public,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate.

“Now is the time, if you haven’t already, to get your plan together for what you and your family would do if disaster strikes. Visit ready.gov to learn more. And if you’re a small business owner, visit www.ready.gov/business to ensure that your business is prepared for a disaster,” added Fugate.

Hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline; strong winds and flooding rainfall often pose a threat across inland areas along with the risk for tornadoes.

Next week, May 22-28, is national Hurricane Preparedness Week. To help prepare residents of hurricane-prone areas, NOAA is unveiling a new set of video and audio public service announcements featuring NOAA hurricane experts and the FEMA administrator that are available in both English and Spanish. These are available at http://www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.
The National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. It operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on Facebook.

Knock on wood, Manatee

2011-05-15T00:09:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Frances, 2004

Knock on wood, but Manatee County has escaped most hurricane seasons relatively unscathed

According to a hurricane evacuation study by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, eight tropical storms or hurricanes have impacted Manatee by either tides or winds:

1921: Tropical Storm Five created Longboat Key Pass.

1946: Hurricane Five made landfall near Bradenton as a Category 1 storm.

1950: Hurricane Easy passed to the west in the Gulf, raising tides 6 to 8 feet from Clearwater to Sarasota.

1960: The remnants of Hurricane Donna passed to the east and deluged the area with rain.

2001: Tropical Storm Gabrielle’s center made landfall at Venice and soaked Manatee. Parrish got the worst of it — 15.1 inches of rain.

2004: Some winds from hurricanes Charley, Francis and Jeanne all affected the area.

Hurricane season begins June 1.

Hurricane season for 2010 officially over

2010-11-30T18:38:00.001-05:00

Maybe it seemed like a quiet hurricane season in Manatee County, but 2010 was a busy, record breaking year.

Curtis Morgan of the Miami Herald reports:

By one set of numbers, 2010 measured up as yet another in the recent run of monster hurricane seasons. The 19 named storms ranked the third busiest on record.

By another, it was a pussycat — at least for the United States.

The six-month season ended Tuesday with the mainland U.S. escaping a major hurricane strike for a record-tying fifth straight year. South Florida, so often a prime target for powerful systems, barely got its hair mussed by Tropical Storms Bonnie and Nicole.

“We’ve never gone more than five years without a major hurricane,” said National Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen. “I’m hoping we’ll be able to set a record next year. Let’s go for six.”

That would be sweet, but don’t bet on it. The mainland’s no-majors streak incongruously coincides with a surge in storms. Since 1995, a global La Niña weather pattern and warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures have sparked a string of unusually active seasons. Seven of the dozen busiest years on record have occurred since 2000, including a record 28 storms in 2005, and forecasters don’t see the tropics cooling off anytime soon.

The 19 named Atlantic storms tied with 1887 and 1995 for the third most on record. The 12 hurricanes tied with 1969 for the second highest on record. Five of those became major hurricanes. The same condition that fired up the Atlantic cooled down the Pacific Ocean, which recorded a record low seven named storms, down from an average of 15.

Manatee County’s emergency management chief hauled out copies of all 19 named storms, including 12 hurricanes, and she said she felt lucky.

“Our people should feel blessed that none of these decided to come over Florida,” Laurie Feagans said Tuesday. “Some of these were large storms that went up the East Coast or elsewhere. I don’t think our people are aware that five of the 12 hurricanes that developed this season were major storms and, with those types of winds, would have done significant damage in our county.”

For more, see Wednesday's Bradenton Herald.

Tomas, producing heavy rains, moves on past Haiti, Cuba

2010-11-05T23:18:00.000-04:00

The headline from the National Hurricane Center at this hour on Hurricane Tomas:

...TOMAS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...

Tomas is a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of 75 mph. Find more particulars on the storm here.

Next up in the path: Turks and Caicos.

Reports show many parts of Haiti have been inundated, but it appears the snake-bit has avoided a major catastrophe.

Find story, photos and more info here from our sister paper the Miami Herald.

Hurricane Tomas lashes Haiti

2010-11-05T16:05:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Tomas flooded the earthquake-shattered remains of a Haitian town on Friday, forcing families who had already lost their homes in one disaster to flee another. In the country's capital, quake refugees resisted calls to abandon flimsy tarp and tent camps.

Driving winds and storm surge battered Leogane, a seaside town west of Port-au-Prince that was near the epicenter of the Jan. 12 earthquake and was 90 percent destroyed. Dozens of families in one earthquake-refuge camp carried their belongings through thigh-high water to a taxi post on high ground, waiting out the rest of the storm under blankets and a sign that read "Welcome to Leogane."

Read the full story here.

Get the latest particulars on the storm here.

Shary and Tomas make for storm Nos. 18 & 19

2010-10-29T17:06:00.001-04:00

(AP) Tropical Storm Tomas has formed in the Atlantic, becoming the season's 19th named storm.

Several tropical storm warnings were issued Friday for several areas including Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, and Trinidad and Tobago.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says Tomas was about 200 miles (320 kilometers) southeast of Barbados on Friday afternoon. It had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph). It was expected to pass over the Windward Islands on Saturday and could become a hurricane by Sunday.

Meanwhile, Bermuda canceled ferry services and urged islanders to secure their boats as Tropical Storm Shary swirled toward the tiny British Atlantic territory.

The storm had sustained winds near 60 mph (100 kph) and was expected to gain strength before passing near or just east of the island by early Saturday morning, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The darkening skies did not dampen the spirits of tourists like Bill and Margaret Breen, a married couple from Boston, who carried rain jackets as they strolled through Hamilton.

"We're flying home tomorrow afternoon, so the only issue could be the storm affecting the flight. But there would be a lot worse things than to stay another day," said Bill Breen, 45.

Friday afternoon, Shary's core was about 155 miles (250 kilometers) south-southwest of Bermuda, according to the hurricane center. It was moving north-northeast at 12 mph (19 kph).

Derrick Binns, the permanent secretary of the Home Affairs Ministry, called on islanders to tie up their boats and secure any outdoor furniture that could blow away in the wind. He also urged cyclists and motorists to be careful on the roads.

Hurricane Richard makes landfall in Belize

2010-10-24T21:38:00.000-04:00

BELIZE CITY (AP) — Hurricane Richard slammed into Belize’s Caribbean coast just south of its largest city late Sunday, as authorities evacuated tourists from outlying islands and an estimated 10,000 people took refuge at shelters in the tiny Central American nation.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Richard’s top winds were 90 mph — making it a Category 1 hurricane — when it made landfall about 20 miles south-southwest of Belize City, whose neighborhoods are full of wooden, tin-roof homes that are very vulnerable to winds.

“The winds are very strong ... it’s getting stronger,” said Fanny Llanos, a clerk at the Lazy Iguana bed and Breakfast on Caye Caulker, a low-lying island known for its coral reefs and crystal-clear waters, located just offshore from Belize City.

Llanos said that palm trees were bending over in the wind and it had become very noisy.

“All the windows are boarded, and this is a strong house so we will be here,” she said, “but we are still afraid.”

Richard was moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and hurricane-force winds extended up to 15 miles from its center.

Mexico issued a hurricane watch for its southern Caribbean coast, and while Richard is expected to cross over the Yucatan peninsula and re-emerge in the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters said it is likely to weaken and dissipate over Gulf waters.

Where is Tropical Storm Richard heading?

2010-10-21T11:41:00.002-04:00

Tropical Storm Richard was born this morning in the Caribbean Sea, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Does his iterinary include Florida?

Here's what the latest computer models are showing. And yes, that blue line is awfully close to Manatee County.

Does Manatee need to worry about No. 19?

2010-10-21T00:04:00.000-04:00

A new tropical depression – No. 19 of the season in the Atlantic basin – formed Wednesday night in the northwestern Caribbean, according to the National Hurricane Center in an 11 p.m. advisory.

And while it is still too early to tell where it will end up, one lone computer model at wunderground.com shows the storm hooking around Cuba and smacking into Manatee County.

Most models, however, show the storm crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. And BayNews9 reported late Wednesday that meteorologists were reasonably confident the system would not directly impact the Tampa Bay area.

The system had sustained winds of 35 mph and the center of circulation was located about 125 miles south of Grand Cayman.

It was trudging along to the east at 2 mph. Minimal turns to the south and west were expected over the next few days.

Little change in strength was expected Thursday, but it could become a Tropical Storm Richard by the weekend.
Find the latest from the hurricane center here.

Phew! 16 storms this season, but yet again Florida in the clear

2010-10-14T23:51:00.000-04:00

Another hurricane, another escape for Florida.

The effects of Tropical Storm Paula, or whatever remains of it after crossing the mountains of Cuba overnight Thursday, weren’t expected to linger long.

“It will be drying out quickly,” said Bill Cottrill, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Key West, where the chance of rain for Friday was put at 40 percent. In Miami-Dade, there was only a 20 percent chance of scattered showers.

The rain chances for the Lower and Middle Keys on Friday are 40 percent. For Miami-Dade and Broward, there is a 20 percent chance of scattered showers.

Paula, the 16th named storm and ninth hurricane of a busy season, weakened at just the right time. Its winds, which had topped 100 mph, continued to drop in the hours before it made landfall around noon Thursday on the northwestern coast of Cuba near Puerto Esperanza, where a top gust of 68 mph was recorded.

Though the storm was small, drenching downpours covered much of the island. As Paula approached, Havana’s Jose Marti Airport reported steady 23 mph winds, gusts to 37 mph and heavy rain and “towering cumulus clouds.” Cuban media reported no significant damage, however, chalking up Paula as a “good news storm’’ because it helped ease drought conditions.

At 5 p.m., the National Hurricane Center reported the storm was 40 miles southwest of Havana, with sustained winds down to 60 mph. For the Lower and Middle Keys, which had been under a tropical storm watch, it was just another blustery, drizzly day — punctuated by sporadic stronger thunderstorms.

Cottrill said he expected some areas of the Keys would see up to three inches of rain before Paula’s fringe fades away — likely by Friday afternoon.

“It’s not a downpour,” he said. “It’s not going to cause any flooding of significance.”

Still, Paula made for dangerous boating weather — particularly offshore south of Key West, where the forecast was for seas of eight feet. Monroe County took no special steps in preparation for the storm but with Key West just 90 miles from Cuba, marine warnings and a tropical storm watch made sense, Cottrill said.

“It was close enough to the Keys where it warranted us keeping a very close eye on it,” he said. “It may have been a little bit too cautious but we’d rather be safe than sorry.”

On its projected track, Paula would travel along Cuba’s mountainous spine, which forecasters expected would gradually continue the weakening started by strong wind shear and dry air. By Saturday, it was expected to dissolve into a disorganized mass of storms and dip south as it approached the southern Bahamas as a mass of thunderstorms.

Forecasters expected the storm to produce from two to four inches of rain in western and central Cuba, with 10 inches possible in spots. Paula could also produce from two to four feet of storm surge as well as large waves.

-- CURTIS MORGAN, Miami Herald

Where is Hurricane Paula heading?

2010-10-12T06:52:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Paula is reportedly heading towards the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico but after that, what is her destination?

As of 5 a.m. EDT today, this what various computer models, which are always evolving, are saying:

A little more ominous for those of us in Florida is this map showing what "ensemble models" are saying about Paula:

As always, be prepared and keep an eye on the forecasts.

Says Accuweather.com: "Since there is still uncertainty in the track of this system, people from Nicaragua to the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, South Florida and the Bahamas should monitor this situation."

The latest on T.D. 16

2010-09-28T23:24:00.000-04:00

At 11 p.m. Tuesday, tropical depression No. 16 was about 95 miles south of Havana and 290 miles southwest of Miami, moving northeast at 8 mph with top sustained winds of 35 mph.

On its projected path, the storm would pass over central Cuba, which could see up to 10 inches of rain, sometime late Tuesday, then gain strength and speed as it hits the Florida Straits.

Tropical storm warnings were posted Tuesday from Key West to Jupiter. Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Collier counties were also placed under flood watches.

Forecasters expected the system to strengthen enough overnight to earn the name Tropical Storm Nicole, but the chief concern was rain, not wind.

There could be buckets of it in South Florida, 4 to 8 inches overall, coming down in 2-inches-an-hour torrents at its most intense before tampering off Wednesday night.

Manatee should expect rainfall amounts of a tenth to a quarter of an inch county wide, along with maximum sustained winds of 10 mph and gusts up to 20 mph, according to Rick Davis, meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Ruskin office.

“We expect to see scattered and numerous showers and thunderstorms, and that’ll be for most of Wednesday and into Wednesday night,” said Davis, who added a drier weather pattern is expected to kick in for the rest of the week once the storms get through.

Much of Manatee received light amounts of rain Tuesday, except extreme East Manatee, which saw about 1.5 inches in spots, Davis said.

Tropical depression in Caribbean heads for Cuba

2010-09-28T15:59:00.000-04:00

(AP) Cuba geared up for heavy rains and high winds from a tropical depression that formed in the northern Caribbean on Tuesday and was forecast to strengthen before plowing across the island and racing northward toward Florida.

The storm was centered about 160 miles south of Havana on Tuesday afternoon and it was moving north-northeast at 10 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Its projected path would take it directly over the Cuban capital and surrounding provinces.

A tropical storm warning was in effect from Matanzas eastward to Ciego de Avila in Cuba, as well as the northwestern and central Bahamas and in Florida from Jupiter Inlet to the Florida Keys.

Maximum sustained winds were 35 mph, but the depression was forecast to pick up steam and become a tropical storm within hours.

Cuba's chief meteorologist said the weather system was large but disorganized and the heaviest rains were expected to hit east of the storm's center in an area from Matanzas to Las Tunas in eastern Cuba.

"This is a very weak system," Jose Rubiera said. He forecast that top wind speeds would rise to no more than 50 mph. "Those winds will not cause any damage, except possibly to sensitive crops or weak structures."

He said he was more concerned about the rains, which could be intense in some areas.

While the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually active, Tuesday's storm is the first to directly threaten Cuba. The island was devastated by three hurricanes in 2008, but was entirely spared last year.

Target Florida?: 'Nicole' may be taking shape in NW Caribbean (UPDATED

2010-09-28T06:45:00.001-04:00

UPDATED, 8:30 a.m. EDT -- As of 8 a.m. EDT, there remain an 80 percent chance that the system would develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

"This system has the potential to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone before merging with a frontal system near the Florida peninsula by late tomorrow," the National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory. "An Air Force reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today."

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As of 5:10 a.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center said that with "only a little more organization," a system of thunderstorms in the northwestern Caribbean Sea would turn into a tropical depression or tropical storm.

"Interests in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida Keys and the central and southern Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system," an advisory states.

If the system develops into a tropical storm, it will be named "Nicole."

Here's what the latest computer models say about the system's possible tracks.

Forecaster: New system may threaten Florida

2010-09-27T13:38:00.000-04:00

Hurricane watchers are keeping a wary eye on "disorganized" cloudiness and thunderstorms in the northwestern Caribbean extending east from what was Tropical Storm Matthew, with at least one forecaster predicting it will turn into Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane Nicole and possibly head towards Florida -- albeit on the opposite side of the Sunshine State from Bradenton.

Here are the words of caution from Accuweather.com:

The northwestern Caribbean seems to be the favorable spot for development over the next 24 to 48 hours and lies in the heart of AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi's concern area through October.

A developing southerly steering flow over eastern North America would guide that system northward across Cuba and into Florida at midweek then northward along the rest of the Atlantic Seaboard during the second half of the week.

Cities from Miami to Jacksonville, Raleigh, Richmond, Washington, D.C., New York City and Boston may be affected with a blast of heavy rain from south to north with the on-deck tropical system.

Along the Atlantic Seaboard, a strong flow of air, known as wind shear, may limit the strength of such a system.

However, even a mere tropical storm can produce excessive rainfall and locally gusty winds.

Will Manatee have to worry about Matthew?

2010-09-26T00:10:00.000-04:00

Manatee County has escaped the wrath of the tropics thus far this hurricane season.

Computer models last week, however, gave a hint that Tropical Storm Matthew could impact Florida.

What about now?

Forecasters just don’t know.

Matthew weakened to a tropical depression Saturday along the coast of Belize, dousing the southern part of the Central American country and neighboring Guatemala with rain that caused flooding in coastal areas.

BayNews9 meteorologist Diane Kacmarik said the computer models now look like a “pretty little flower,” with lines going out in all directions.

The remnants of the tropical depression are expected to be practically stationary over the next day or two. After that, forecasters can only speculate.

Kacmarik said a disturbance could form in the Caribbean in the trail of Matthew, but no computer models have anything on that just yet.

On Saturday afternoon, Matthew had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and was moving inland toward Guatemala and southern Mexico at about 14 mph.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Matthew could unleash 6 to 10 inches of rain, with as much as 15 inches possible in some areas in Belize, Guatemala and Mexico.

Meanwhile, far out over the Atlantic, Hurricane Lisa weakened to a tropical storm and was drifting slowly north with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Matthew could threaten Florida

2010-09-24T08:50:00.000-04:00

If Matthew really is a possible threat to Florida, the latest computer models say any impact is still days away.

As of 8 a.m. EDT, here's the National Hurricane Center's current advisory.

'Lisa' is Atlantic's newest tropical storm

2010-09-21T09:58:00.000-04:00

Tropical Storm Lisa has been born in the Atlantic Ocean.

The National Hurricane Center said Lisa was located about 530 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. Maximum sustained winds were 40 mph, and the storm was moving north at 5 mph.

"A turn towards the north-northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Thursday," the Hurricane Center said in a statement issued at 5 a.m. EDT.

Forecasts can change, but here's a map reflecting what current computer models are saying about Lisa's projected path.

Lisa is the 12th named storm of the current hurricane season.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Igor has slammed into Canada.

'High' chance new system turns into 'Lisa'

2010-09-20T09:36:00.000-04:00

The season's newest tropical storm/hurricane may be taking shape in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of 8 a.m. today, there was an 80 percent, or "high," chance that an area of low pressure about 400 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands would develop into a tropical storm within 48 hours as it moves slowly to the northwest.

Most early computer models have the system -- it will be named "Lisa" if it becomes a tropical storm and/or hurricane -- not posing a threat to Florida.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Igor and Tropical Storm Julia are heading towards the north Atlantic.

Weaker Igor still has Bermuda in its sights

2010-09-17T16:04:00.001-04:00

Hurricane Igor is churning its way toward an expected Sunday night brush of Bermuda.

At this hour, the storm has sustained winds of 115 mph and is moving pretty methodically at a forward speed of 9 mph.

Igor's forecast track has remained steady over the past few days, with the storm expected to pass just to the east of the island nation.

Find the latest maps and info on Igor here.

Here's a video posted on YouTube of sites around Bermuda on Thursday. We're thinking it'll look much different Sunday.

Bermuda square in Igor's path

2010-09-15T16:12:00.000-04:00

The five-day forecast track for Hurricane Igor doesn't bode well for Bermuda. The Category 4 storm's projected path passes just to the east of the island.

But even a glancing blow from Igor is expected to be painful. Why? This storm is huge.

Tropical storm-force winds extend 225 miles from the center of circulation, but it's more than that. Check out this story from the Weather Channel's website. It reports that Igor's cirrus cloud canopy is equivalent to the distance of Dallas to New York City.

Another concern: Although Igor is expected to dropped in strength, it is expected to grow in size.

For now, Bermuda can just watch and wait. Until Sunday. That's when Igor is expected to strike or make that glancing blow.

Read the Bermuda Sun newspaper's latest Igor story here.

Find video of Igor from the International Space Station here.

Here's Karl; plus more on Julia

2010-09-14T17:13:00.000-04:00

Tropical Storm Karl has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the 5 p.m. advisory from the National Weather Service. A storm warning also has been issued for parts of the Mexican coast.

Find maps, forecasts, particulars on Karl here.

Julia, meanwhile, is a minimal hurricane with 85 mph winds at this hour, and moving west-northwestward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.

Find maps, forecasts, particulars on Julia here.

What's in store for Cat. 4 Igor?

2010-09-14T16:09:00.000-04:00

Igor is a monster Category 4 hurricane this afternoon and it’s on a path that could take it dangerously close to Bermuda this weekend, reports AccuWeather.com.

Live on the island or soon traveling there? Take heed, watch your forecasts and be ready to take appropriate action.

Through the end of the week, Igor will remain a powerful storm over the open waters of the Atlantic, passing well north of the Leeward Islands, but still bringing increased waves and swells to the region.

Forecasts call for Igor to remain a Category 4 hurricane over the next day or two.

It should weaken toward the weekend as it starts moving over cooler waters and into stronger wind shear.

Whenever and wherever it passes by Bermuda on Friday night into early Saturday, it’s expected to be at Category 2 or Category 3 strength.

Damaging winds, flooding, rain, extremely rough surf and a storm surge could all be major problems for the island if Igor passes close enough, reports AccuWeather.com, which adds that will be especially true if the eye tracks just to the west of Bermuda, putting the island in the right front quadrant of the storm, where winds are strongest and the storm surge is highest.

Igor threatens to become Category 5

2010-09-13T10:25:00.002-04:00

Powerful Hurricane Igor threatened to become a Category 5 storm Monday as it churned far out over the Atlantic Ocean.

Igor was at Category 4 strength with maximum sustained winds near 150 mph (240 kph). But the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Igor could reach Category 5 strength later in the day.

Igor was located about 940 miles (1,515 kilometers) east of the Northern Leeward Islands and was moving west near 13 mph (20 kph). A turn toward the west-northwest was expected Monday night or Tuesday, the hurricane center said.

Also in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Julia was moving westward, away from the southern Cape Verde Islands. Julia was about 85 miles (130 kilometers) west-southwest of the southernmost islands and moving west-northwest near 14 mph (23 kph). The storm's maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph (65 kph).

Officials issued a tropical storm warning for parts of the Cape Verde Islands including Maio, Sao Tiago, Fogo and Brava.

Hurricane Igor hits Category 4

2010-09-12T17:32:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Igor is living up to its name after rapidly intensifying into a monster Category 4 hurricane Sunday afternoon. The storm could easily become the strongest hurricane of the season to date, AccuWeather reports.

The map is courtesy of Weather Underground at its 5 p.m. update. While Igor poses no threat to land over the next few days, people in Bermuda, Atlantic Canada and along the East Coast should keep track of this storm for potential impacts next weekend and beyond.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center reports that Igor's maximum sustained winds were estimated to have increased to 140 mph late Sunday afternoon as the storm headed westward over the south-central Atlantic.

Igor is expected to remain a Category 4 hurricane throughout this upcoming week and could even reach Category 5 status for a time.

System in Caribbean may be next tropical storm

2010-09-10T11:41:00.000-04:00

There is a "medium" chance that a low pressure system over the Windward Islands in the Caribbean Sea could develop into a tropical storm within the next 48 hours, according to a National Hurricane Center advisory issued at 8 a.m. this morning.

The system was producing showers and thunderstorms, and appeared to becoming better organized, according to the report.

"Some slow development of this disturbance is possible over the next couple of days as it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 5 mph," the advisory states.

According to maps posted at WeatherUnderground.com, various models differ on where the system may be heading, but one model currently has it crossing eastern Cuba and taking aim at South Florida.

However, an "ensemble model" had the storm heading to landfall in Central America.

If the system is the next to develop as a tropical storm, it will be named Julia.

Meanwhile, Igor had regained strength and was again classified as a tropical storm.

The Hurricane Center in Miami says the storm could become a hurricane by Sunday. Igor remained far from land and was about 465 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.

Most models had the storm continuing west but then turning north long before it approaches Florida.

Tropical Storm Igor forms in the Atlantic.

2010-09-08T09:26:00.001-04:00

UPDATED, 11:40 a.m. EDT - Tropical Storm Igor is born. The computer models below remain unchanged.

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A "well-defined low pressure area" far, far away near Africa could turn into a tropical depression over the next day or so, and there's a 70 percent chance it will turn into the next tropical storm of this hurricane season as it moves westward, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The system already was producing showers and thunderstorms, and its development will increase as strong upper-level winds above it dissipate.

As of 8 a.m. EDT, the system was located just south of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands and heading west at about 10 mph to 15 mph.

Meanwhile, there was zero chance that disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple hundred miles southeast of the Dominican Republic -- the remnants of what once was Gaston -- would redevelop into a cyclone, according to forecasters.

It may be too early to start worrying, but here's what computers are saying now about to where the system is heading, according Weather Underground.

Tropics are relatively quiet

2010-09-07T09:02:00.000-04:00

Hermine, we hardly knew you, and that's more than OK.

Hermine, a fast-developing tropical storm now dumping heavy rains on South Texas, didn't ruin our Labor Day holiday. And according to the National Hurricane Center, there's little on the immediate horizon to worry about.

Still, this is the peak of hurricane center, so we bring you a map showing three areas of disturbance being tracked by forecasters.

From left to right:

Disturbance No. 1 - Cloudiness and showers associated with remnants of Gaston are hovering over the Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean. There is a 10 percent, or "low," chance that the system will become a cyclone over the next 48 hours as it moves westward.
Disturbance No. 2 -A weak area of low pressure about 350 miles west of the nothernmost Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. There is a 10 percent chance of it becoming a cyclone over the next 48 hours as it moves westward about about 10 mph.
Disturbance No. 3 - Showers and thunderstorms located between the Cape Verde Islands and the West Coast of Africa are associated with a tropical wave that is developing. There is 10 percent chance the system turns into a cyclone during the next 48 hours.

The next three storms strong enough to earn names will be Igor, Julia and Karl.

11 p.m update on Earl

2010-09-02T23:09:00.000-04:00

The center of Earl is passing just east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina at this hour with maximum sustained winds down to a still-hefty 105 mph.

Forecasters still expect a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. A gradual weakening is also expected as it reaches cooler waters.

Find all the latest maps, forecasts and particulars on Earl here.

Earl back up to Cat. 4; watches, warnings extended up Eastern Seaboard

2010-09-01T17:13:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Earl has ratcheted back up to Cat. 4 strength with 135 mph winds, according to a 5 p.m. advisory from the National Weather Service.

Hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings now blanket the Eastern Seaboard from North Carolina to Massachusetts.

A hurricane warning (hurricane conditions expected within 36 hours) is in effect for:

* Bogue Inlet, N.C., northeastward to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A hurricane watch (hurricane conditions possible within 48 hours) is in effect for:
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Henlopen, Del.
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Mass., including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

A tropical storm warning (tropical storm conditions expected within 36 hours) is in effect for:
* From Cape Fear to west of Bogue Inlet in North Carolina.
* From North Carolina/Virginia border to Sandy Hook, N.J., including Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach and the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

A tropical storm watch (tropical storm condition possible within 48 hours) is in effect for:
* Sandy Hook, N.J., to Woods Hole, Mass., including Block Island and Long Island Sound.
* North of Sagamore Beach to the mouth of the Merrimack River, Mass.

Seventh named storm of season forms

2010-09-01T17:00:00.000-04:00

Gaston, with 40 mph winds, has formed in the far Atlantic, the National Weather Service said in a 5 p.m. advisory. It poses no immediate threat to any land.

N.C. declares state of emergency ahead of Earl

2010-09-01T15:57:00.001-04:00

North Carolina's governor declared a state of emergency Wednesday as evacuation of the coast ahead of Hurricane Earl continues.

Earl's strongest winds are expected to reach the coast Thursday night into Friday morning. Perdue warned residents along the Outer Banks to leave those areas immediately.

Already, hundreds of cars were backed up in traffic on N.C. Highway 12, the sole link between the fragile barrier islands and the mainland.

At 2 p.m., Earl's winds were topping out at 125 mph, less than the 135 mph it had reached earlier this week during its trek across the Atlantic. An Air Force reconnaissance plane, however, indicated that the storm appeared to be re-strengthening, and could reach Category 4 status by later today.

Earl was quickly moving at 17 mph toward the northwest, a motion expected to continue until a gradually turning the north Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend 90 miles from the center of circulation, and tropical storm-force winds extend outward 200 miles.

The next update from the National Weather Service is due at 5 p.m.

Find the latest maps, advisories and particulars on Earl here.

Earl to brush Turks and Caicos on path toward U.S.

2010-08-31T18:01:00.000-04:00

PROVIDENCIALES, Turks and Caicos (AP) — Islanders wary of a possible blow from powerful Hurricane Earl pulled boats ashore and packed supermarkets on the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday as the Category 4 storm howled over open seas toward the eastern United States.

The hurricane, with winds of 135 mph (215 kilometers), was expected to remain over the open ocean east of this British territory before turning north and running parallel to the U.S. coast, potentially reaching the North Carolina coastal region by Friday. It was projected then to curve back out to sea, perhaps swiping New England or far-eastern Canada.

“There is still considerable uncertainty as to how close the hurricane will come to the U.S. East Coast,” the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said in a bulletin Tuesday.

Earl delivered a glancing blow to several small Caribbean islands on Monday, tearing roofs off homes and cutting electricity to people in Anguilla, Antigua, and St. Maarten. Cruise ships were diverted and flights canceled across the region. But there were no reports of death or injury.

In Providenciales, Benson Capron was among several fishermen tying their boats to trees lining a beach.

“I hear it is going to pass, but I will not take any chances,” Capron said. “Today I will not go out to fish.”

The Hurricane Center said it was too early to say what effect Earl would have in the U.S., but warned it could at least kick up dangerous rip currents. A surfer died in Florida and a Maryland swimmer had been missing since Saturday in waves spawned by former Hurricane Danielle, which weakened to a tropical storm Monday far out in the north Atlantic.

Craig Fugate, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said Earl’s approach ought to serve as a reminder for Atlantic coastal states to update their evacuation plans.

“It wouldn’t take much to have the storm come ashore somewhere on the coast,” Fugate said. “The message is for everyone to pay attention.”

The storm’s center passed just north of the British Virgin Islands on Monday afternoon. Despite a few lost fishing boats and several uprooted trees in Tortola and Anegada, there were no reports of major damage or injuries, said Sharleen DaBreo, disaster management agency director.

Early Tuesday, Earl’s center was about 230 miles (370 kilometers) east of Grand Turk island as it headed west-northwest at 13 mph (30 kph), according to the hurricane center. Hurricane strength winds extended up to 70 miles (110 kilometers) from the center, it said.

Tropical storm conditions were expected to spread into the Turks and Caicos by Tuesday afternoon, with a potential for above normal tides and dangerous tides. The territory was under a tropical warning and a tropical storm watch was in effect for the southeastern Bahamas.

Close on Earl’s heels, Tropical Storm Fiona formed Monday afternoon in the open Atlantic. The storm, with maximum winds of 40 mph (65 kph), was projected to pass just north of the Leeward Islands by Wednesday and stay farther out in the Atlantic than Earl’s northward path. Fiona wasn’t expected to reach hurricane strength over the next several days.

The rapid development of Earl, which only became a hurricane Sunday, took some islanders and tourists by surprise.

In Anguilla, several utility poles were down and a couple of roofs had blown away, but it was still too dangerous to go out and assess the full extent of damage, said Martin Gussie, a police officer.

At El Conquistador Resort in Fajardo, Puerto Rico, people lined up at the reception desk, the lights occasionally flickering, to check out and head to the airport. There, more delays awaited.

John and Linda Helton of Boulder, Colo., opted to ride out the storm. The couple, celebrating their 41st wedding anniversary, finished a cruise Sunday and planned to spend three days in Puerto Rico.

“There was a huge line of people checking out as we were coming in, and I thought it was just that summer vacation must be over,” said John Helton, a real estate appraiser. “But we paid for the room, so we might as well stick it out.”

“I don’t think we could get a flight even if we wanted to leave,” Linda Helton added.

In St. Maarten, sand and debris littered the streets, and winds knocked down trees and electricity poles and damaged roofs. But police spokesman Ricardo Henson said there was no extensive damage to property.

In Antigua, at least one home was destroyed but there were no reports of serious injuries. Governor General Dame Louise Agnetha Lake-Tack declared Monday a public holiday to keep islanders off the road and give them a chance to clean up.

———

Associated Press writers Ben Fox in Fajardo, Puerto Rico, Anika Kentish in St. John’s, Antigua, Judy Fitzpatrick in Philipsburg, St. Maarten, and David McFadden, Mike Melia and Danica Coto in San Juan and contributed to this report.

Storms' right turns keep sparing Florida

2010-08-31T09:13:00.000-04:00

One of the first things we look for when we hear of another hurricane in the making in the Atlantic Ocean is the storm's projected path, based on various computer models the experts use to build their forecasts.

Is the storm projected to make a run at or near Florida or will it make a big right turn and stay in the Atlantic?

So far this season, right has been the way go.

Colin did it.

So did Danielle.

And while he made it closer to us than his trouble-making siblings, Hurricane Earl -- which as of 9 a.m. EST today was a Category 4 monster bearing down Puerto Rico -- is forecast to make a turn to the north, perhaps bringing a scare to the Outer Banks of North Carolina later in the week.

Right behind Earl is Tropical Storm Fiona, which as of this morning, was forecast, as well, to turn north long before it reaches Florida.

Danielle brings rip currents to US, dozens rescued

2010-08-28T23:36:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Danielle is far out over the Atlantic, but the Category 2 storm is bringing dangerous rip currents to the U.S. East Coast.

Lifeguards had to rescue dozens of swimmers off the Florida coast. Danielle's maximum sustained winds were near 105 mph on Saturday. It is about 355 miles east of Bermuda and is forecast to pass well east of the island. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami has discontinued a tropical storm watch for the island.

Farther out in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Earl is nearing hurricane strength with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. It's expected to become a hurricane Sunday.

A hurricane warning is in effect for several islands in the eastern Caribbean, including Antigua and Montserrat.

Danielle a major hurricane

2010-08-27T02:03:00.000-04:00

Danielle is now a major hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph, according to the 2 a.m. of the National Hurricane Center.

The storm is still expected to make a gradual turn to the north and pass well east of Bermuda.

Swells from Danielle to reach U.S. today

2010-08-27T00:00:00.000-04:00

Forecasters say swells churned up by Hurricane Danielle could reach parts of the U.S. East Coast by the weekend and that dangerous surf conditions are expected in Bermuda, though the eye will likely move well east of the island.

National Hurricane Center forecasters said late Thursday that Danielle is expected to become a major hurricane as it moves across the open Atlantic. Danielle had maximum sustained winds near 110 mph.

Farther east, Tropical Storm Earl is racing west over the Atlantic with winds near 45 mph. Forecasters expect Earl to become a hurricane by early Saturday. Another system is following Earl's track and could become a depression soon.

Tropical Storm Earl forms; more storms brewing?

2010-08-25T17:40:00.001-04:00

Tropical Storm Earl, above, has formed in the open Atlantic Ocean, but the system is far from land.

Earl has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is expected to become a hurricane by Friday.

Also in the open Atlantic, Hurricane Danielle (see forecast track below) is moving northwest with winds of about 85 mph. The forecast track has Danielle heading toward Bermuda over the next several days.

Conditions have become favorable for a few more tropical systems to form in the Atlantic Basin over the next 10 days, according to AccuWeather.com.

A new disturbance is emerging off the coast of Africa, the origin of many tropical storms and hurricanes during late August through September. Plus, there are three other areas meteorologists are watching for possible development in the upcoming days.

One area lies over the western Gulf of Mexico. A brew of scattered showers and thunderstorms could become better organized over the next few days. Steering currents could take this system westward into Texas or northern Mexico, perhaps reaching depression status.

Depression or not, this feature could deliver flooding downpours to the region as it drifts inland.

Another area worth mentioning is the tail end of an old front off the southern Atlantic Seaboard. While this system is likely to get kicked out and sheared this weekend, it too could organize a low-level circulation beforehand.

Finally, some computer models are cooking up a disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, as a tropical wave invades from the east.

-- The Associated Press and AccuWeather.com